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Ukraine crisis may send ripples through Indo-Pacific, analysts say
Indonesia's envoy to the United Nations said that the international community must go beyond condemnation and start “restoring trust and confidence”, as analysts predict the potential effects of the Ukraine crisis.
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The results of a United Nations General Assembly vote on a resolution is shown on a screen during a special session at the UN headquarters in New York City on March 2. (AFP/Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images/)
M
ore than a week since Russia launched its self-justified invasion of Ukraine, strategic thinkers from Southeast Asia have started to reflect on the potential impact the conflict might have on the periphery, including in the Indo-Pacific.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to conduct a “special military operation” in Ukraine on Feb. 24 has sparked widespread condemnation, including from Russians themselves, but Moscow’s relentless attacks since then have sparked fears that the conflict could have knock-on effects on other parts of the world.
Kishore Mahbubani, the director of the Asian Peace Program at the National University of Singapore (NUS), said that while it was still too early to tell what the outcome of Russia’s invasion would be, a crisis in Europe would definitely have implications in Asia.
“I hope that we would – in our region – realize that whatever we do, if we see a conflict approaching, it’s best to do something proactively to stop it, instead of being passive in the way that the Europeans were in Ukraine,” he told a webinar organized by the Indonesian International Islamic University on Wednesday.
The large-scale attack follows Ukraine’s attempts to gain membership to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which Moscow considers an existential threat.
Analysts consider it a worst-case scenario for the failed efforts to talk the Kremlin down after months of military buildup at Ukraine’s borders.
The invasion has also upended international cooperation, changing the strategic outlook of European countries like Germany, Switzerland, Finland and Sweden, while splitting apart the rest of the world.
