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Commentary: Coalition between Golkar and the PDI-P? Not likely
The top leaders of the country's two largest political parties, Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), have been floating yet again the idea of a coalition, returning their legendary love-hate relationship to the spotlight
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The top leaders of the country's two largest political parties, Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), have been floating yet again the idea of a coalition, returning their legendary love-hate relationship to the spotlight.
The two secular organizations have similar political platforms and the behaviors of the two parties' elites are also similar.
Taufik Kiemas, chief of the PDI-P advisory board, and Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla raised the issue during a Golkar consolidation meeting in Jakarta on Aug. 25.
Kalla is a successful businessman and Kiemas has also been active in business including when his wife, Megawati Soekarnoputri, was vice president from October 1999 to July 2001 and then president from July 2001 to September 2004.
"If the (Golkar and PDI-P) parties coalesce, the whole nation will remain united," Kalla said of the urgent need for the countries' largest parties to come together as one in next year's elections.
Taufik responded, "I hope the coalition will materialize before the PDI-P convenes its national meeting this November."
On the surface, the two political leaders' statements sound soothing amid the hustle-bustle in the national political scene, where politicians jostle for positions ahead of the elections.
Both Megawati and Kalla, the incumbent vice president, are set to compete for the presidency. Various pollsters have tipped Megawati as the strongest candidate alongside Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is keen to seek reelection.
In fact Golkar and the PDI-P, along with smaller nationalist parties, did form a coalition in 2004 when they joined forces to support the rise of Yudhoyono. Once they had their power share, they went their separate ways as foes again with the PDI-P assuming the role of opposition.
At the local level, they have joined forces in regency and provincial elections, in which many of their candidates suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of rivals fielded by an alliance of smaller but better-organized parties, spearheaded by the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
For Golkar and the PDI-P to form a coalition ahead of the 2009 elections -- or even after them -- is unlikely, not only because Megawati and Kalla have their own presidential ambitions but also because the notion is meeting resistance from within the parties.
Kalla says he loves the coalition idea but would like to see it materialize after the 2009 legislative elections, suggesting that he wants to see the outcomes of the vote first. If Golkar manages to retain its majority in the House of Representatives, he would most likely run for the presidency but if the PDI-P fares better, he would probably not mind playing second fiddle again.
He is obviously upbeat about Golkar winning the legislative election. Political analyst Ari Dwipayana of Gadjah Mada University told Antara that Kalla would feel comfortable enough to run for president if Golkar won just 30 percent of the 550 legislative seats. If that is the case, Kalla may offer the deputy position to Megawati, or the PDI-P would remain an opposition party if she refuses it.
Megawati is determined to run only for president -- take it or leave it. PDI-P secretary-general Pramono Anung has made it clear it would be unthinkable for the party to build a coalition with any party that fields its own presidential nominee.
Adding to the complexity is the bitter political animosity between Megawati and Kalla. Late last month, Kalla waved a red flag at the bull when he ordered a review of an LNG contract with China signed by the Megawati administration in 2002. Kalla, who sees the contract as considerably undervalued, believes it could incur a potential loss of Rp 700 trillion for Indonesia. The government has assigned a team led by Coordinating Minister for the Economy Sri Mulyani Indrawati to renegotiate the contract.
Megawati has retorted that Kalla's move is politically motivated and pointed out that both Kalla (then coordinating minister for the people's welfare in her Cabinet) and Yudhoyono (then her coordinating minister for political affairs, law and security) knew of the drafting of the disputed agreement.
Megawati apparently still cannot forgive Yudhoyono and Kalla for leaving her Cabinet and challenging her (successfully) in the 2004 presidential election.
Kalla's move has angered Megawati's men. PDI-P deputy chief Tjahyo Kumolo has threatened to retaliate by disclosing incidents of major corruption involving government officials such as those allegedly taking place in Bank Mandiri, Karaha Bodas, the toll road projects and Chandra Asri.
At the grassroots level, many supporters of the PDI-P, which portrays itself as the "party of the common people", hold bitter memories of Golkar, which they see as the party of the late strongman Soeharto who oppressed them.
Like those numerous coalitions in the past, one between PDI-P and Golkar -- if it happens at all -- would be temporary and pragmatic: to rake in as many votes as possible and to share power.
These two parties, like so many others, are fighting for their own interests rather than doing what is best for the people.
