It was hardly an auspicious start to the election campaign period. The General Elections Commission (KPU) thought it would be a good idea to launch the campaign on Monday by gathering the representatives of all 38 political parties contesting the national election and making them pledge for a peaceful campaign. Instead, the peace rally turned rowdy as party reps jostled to take the podium and make their political statements. The farcical opening gave the nation a taste of things to come in the next three weeks of election campaigning: chaotic but, hopefully, still peaceful.

Indonesia has not had any history of election violence and there is no reason to fear why 2009 should be so. Most election-related deaths in the past came from traffic accidents, not from violent clashes between zealous supporters.

Signs are that this year's election campaign will be chaotic thanks in no minor part to the incompetence of the KPU.

Three days before the campaign kicked off, the KPU revised the nationwide campaign schedule, reportedly to accommodate the hectic schedule of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. He will be taking breaks from state duties during weekends to campaign for his Democratic Party (PD). The final schedule was only issued Wednesday.

The problem with these last-minute changes is that we are talking about 38 parties. To avoid street clashes between supporters, contending parties are allocated equal time in every city and town, and police have been duly notified about planned rallies and the size of the expected crowd. So everyone, including the police, has had to make last-minute adjustments to comply with the new revised KPU schedule.

A general election in Indonesia has always put the nation in festive mood, "a fiesta of democracy". Election rallies are really as much about handing out goods to people as making empty promises. T-shirts denoting party colors (and there are 38 of them) will be given out, and long motorcades will create massive traffic congestion. Harsh words will be exchanged, but most people know when to stop. Things may be chaotic, but as in the past, things would work themselves out in time for the election to proceed peacefully.

This high degree of tolerance should not be mistaken for turning a blind eye to blatant cheating. The allegation by former East Java Police Insp. Gen. Herman Surjadi Sumawiredja of political intervention in his investigation of fraud in last month's gubernatorial election could be a ticking time bomb unless the government handles it with care.

Herman on Monday called a press conference in Jakarta to say his investigation found the number of voters in the two East Java regencies where the gubernatorial election had to be repeated was inflated byover 300,000 that effectively gave victory to the PD candidates. Following this finding, Herman named the head of the East Java Elections Commission a suspect, but he was quickly removed from his job and the investigation was virtually dropped.

While Herman's claim of fraud will not likely change the outcome because the new East Java governor has already been sworn in, it still raises doubts about the accuracy of the list of the 171 million registered voters for the national election. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) said Wednesday its investigation in four regencies in East Java found the number of registered voters inflated by as many as 30 percent.

The PDI-P, the party of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, has cried foul play and insists that the national voters' list be reviewed, taking into consideration this finding and also Herman's claim. Other parties are joining in the chorus with some even suggesting that the election cannot be held until after the voters' list can be verified.

The credibility of the KPU and of the entire electoral process is at stake, and President Yudhoyono and National Police Chief Gen. Bambang Hendarso Danuri must answer accusations of political intervention leveled against them.

Then again, the political system in Indonesia suffers from a credibility gap. This week, the corruption court sentenced Bulyan Royan, a member of the House of Representatives, to six years in jail for taking bribes in securing contracts for patrol boat suppliers. Meanwhile, the investigation of another House member, Abdul Hadi Djamal, who was caught red-handed taking bribes for a project in the Ministry of Transportation last week, is expanding. Abdul says accomplices in his crime include fellow House members Rama Pratama and Jhonny Allen Marbun.

With more and more politicians going to jail or being investigated for corruption, many people are asking whether it is worth the trouble voting on April 9 when the credibility of politicians is in doubt. Scandals like this are likely to increase people's apathy toward political parties and the election and there is now fear that voter turnout could be even lower than the 65 percent registered in 2004.

For what it's worth, the election campaign means more money being pumped into the economy. Just think: Up to 700,000 candidates running for the national parliament, the senate and the regional councils. If each spends an average sum of Rp 100 million (US$8,376) (a very conservative figure) the total still comes to a hefty Rp 70 trillion.

This is cash spent on producing posters, banners and t-shirts and on campaign volunteers, nasi bungkus (rice meals), door prizes at election rallies. This is hard cash that beats the government's stimulus package of about the same amount. Just don't ask questions about where the money comes from. Under the current electoral law, party funding is subject to reporting and auditing. Funds received, raised and spent by candidates are not.

Having so many parties contesting the election may by confusing, but at least, it's good for the people's economy.

- Endy M. Bayuni

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