T

he poor management of the legislative elections, the main factor behind the General Elections Commission's (KPU) coming under fire, and the emergence of rapidly shifting rules of the game have made the upcoming polls the worst in the reform era, a political analyst says, but will not lead to political chaos.

The University of Indonesia's Eep Saifulloh Fatah cited the emerging issue of the voter list fraud, which has raised strong criticism and deep concern among election contestants, the shoddy and late distribution of election material to all regions - especially isolated ones - the unclear working system in polling bodies at all levels, the poor voter education campaign and the overall lack of preparedness in technical and administrative guidance for the changing poll system following the judicial review of the 2008 election law.

"The upcoming elections will be the most trouble compared to the two previous ones in 1999 and 2004, leading to potential conflicts among the political elites and at the grassroots level," he said in a discussion with The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

In the two previous polls, he added, no such problems emerged and the polling body had been prepared with firm electoral rules, an adequate education campaign, and satisfactory elections logistics, well before balloting day.

Polling bodies at all levels have come under fire for the voter list fraud in several provinces and regencies that have threatened to jeopardize the legitimacy of the elections, with some 20 small political parties saying they will reject the results of the polls.

A worrying amount of election material, including ballots, have not yet reached several regencies, while printing flaws have been found in more than 13 million ballots already dispatched.

"Numerous conflicts will likely take place mainly during the vote counting in polling stations and vote tallying at the regency and provincial levels," Fatah said.

"But the conflicts that will likely involve mostly party supporters will not turn into political chaos or even a suspension of the general elections, as the political elite is barely aware of its political implications, such as a power vacuum," he added, and said the power vacuum triggered by an election suspension was regulated in the amended 1945 Constitution.

He added any local conflicts at the grassroots level would not escalate to a national level or turn into political chaos because it would not involve the majority of people bored with the numerous elections, including local ones, which had brought little significant change to their daily lives.

An average of one election is conducted every day in the country, he claimed, following the direct elections of governors in 33 provinces and of regents and mayors in more than 470 regencies and municipalities, besides the five-yearly legislative and presidential elections.

Potential conflicts will emerge, Fatah observed, from the implementation of the 2.5 percent parliamentary threshold and the majority system in the House seat distribution.