Voters have spoken and it’s clear that they want nationalist-secular political parties to control the direction this country, leaving Islamic parties, a permanent fixture in Indonesian politics, to once again play second fiddle.

The results of quick counts of the April 9 parliamentary elections by four independent survey organizations show that four Islamist parties will be represented in the national legislature: The Justice Prosperity Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the United Development Party (PPP).

According to these quick counts, each of these parties secured between five and eight percent of the total national vote which, if lumped together, accounts for less than 25 percent. This is within the historical range of the share of votes of Islamist parties in all four democratic Indonesian elections (held in 1955, 1999 and 2004).  

The message that voters sent to these Islamist parties is the same as it was in the previous elections.

The majority of Indonesians, including most of its huge Muslim population, trust the secular-nationalist parties to run this country more than those parties that exploit religious symbols.

These four are mid-size parties that will be ranked from fourth to seventh largest in the House of Re-presentatives. In contrast, the Democratic Party (PD) of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono polled more than 20 percent and Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) each received around 14 percent, going by the results of the quick counts.

The combined share of votes for Islamic parties declined this year if we remove the PAN and the PKB from the group. The PAN has shed its Islamic image under Chairman Sutrisno Bachir, though it has not announced this openly, knowing that it would be detrimental to its chances of election. The PKB is the party of the Nahdlatul Ulama, the country’s largest Islamic organization and has no ambition to turn Indonesia into an Islamic state.   

This leaves the PKS and the PPP as the only parties in the national parliament with a clear Islamic agenda that includes the creation of an Islamic state/civil society at some stage in the future and the introduction of some form of sharia (Islamic law).

The PKS, the larger of the two, held its ground and may even have slightly increased its share of the national vote within the 7-8 percent range, though fell well short of its stated target of 15 percent. Considering its impressive rise to just above 7 percent in 2004, up from less than 2 percent in 1999, this year must count as a flop.

Following its performance in 2004, the PKS triggered a debate about its “phenomenal rise,” with predictions and warnings that this wass the party to watch in 2009. This did not materialize. The PKS, as far as voters are concerned, is just another Islamic party.

Instead we saw the phenomenal rise of the PD this year, something that no one had predicted. The rise of PD, from 7 percent to more than 20 percent this year, has come at the expense not only of the other nationalist parties including Golkar and the PDI-P, but also Islamic parties including the PKS.

Having been part of Yudhoyono’s coalition government and of national and local legislatures, the performance and track record of the PKS came under a lot of public scrutiny and people voted on that basis rather than relying on the party’s promises and its anti-corruption slogans, as it did in 2004. The fact that the PKS managed to slightly increase its votes this year tells you what voters really think of the party.

A last minute switch in strategy by the PKS to try to pass as a nationalist party during the election campaign in order to broaden its appeal beyond its Muslim constituency failed. The PKS is and will always be seen by voters as an Islamic party.

In contrast, the PPP makes no bone about its Islamic identity and campaigned hard on this platform, exploiting religious symbols and slogans to gain votes. Voters were still not impressed and people who had voted for the PPP in the past abandoned it in 2009.

For all of its shortcomings, the general election is still the best gauge of the popularity of Islamic parties and their agenda, including the creation of an Islamic state and the introduction of sharia. The majority of Indonesian voters clearly still believe in the pluralistic nature of the nation.

The Islamic parties within the current coalition government managed to push some of their agenda over the last five years, including the introduction of some form of sharia in more than 40 regencies across the nation. Judging by the reaction of voters, this strategy backfired.

The result of this parliamentary vote should send a strong signal to the new House of Representatives and the new administration that the majority of Indonesians, including most Muslims, do not support an Islamic political agenda. The new government should not hesitate to roll back all the sharia bylaws which are discriminatory to non-Muslims and clearly against the constitution.

They must also repeal the Draconian anti-pornography law, pushed by Islamist parties last year, which many viewed as a restriction of artistic expressions, including the way people dress.  Islamist parties may be down but they are not out.

There will always be part of the Muslim population in this country who will vote for them in every election. Their number is never large, but is significant enough to allow such parties representation in the national parliament. What this means is that Islam will always be a political commodity that can get positions in this country, but it has its limitations, as the PKS is now finding.

At best, these Islamist parties can influence the government as junior partners in a coalition government. But don’t expect them to grow — history is against them.

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