TheJakartaPost

Please Update your browser

Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.

Jakarta Post

Pending critical issues of the general election 2009

Indonesia’s reputation as a budding democracy was widely respected after successful elections in 1999 and 2004 during the Reform Era, that were regarded by the Indonesian people and the international community as fair, peaceful and democratic

Jusuf Wanandi (The Jakarta Post)
JAKARTA
Thu, May 7, 2009

Share This Article

Change Size

Pending critical issues of  the general election 2009

Indonesia’s reputation as a budding democracy was widely respected after successful elections in 1999 and 2004 during the Reform Era, that were regarded by the Indonesian people and the international community as fair, peaceful and democratic.

The legislative elections of April 9 this year, however, were messy because many legitimate voters, perhaps up to 30 million, were unable to cast their votes mainly due to the incompetence of the  General Elections Commission (KPU).

This problem was also caused by the negligence and irresponsibility of the government by not paying more serious attention and exercising stricter supervision of the KPU.

But this deficiency and mistakes, while widely protested by many political parties, civil society groups and individuals, were seen as not being organized nationally or with the intention to cheat, although this appeared to have been the case in some locations.

The good thing is that until now these mistakes have not delegitimized the elections, which could have dire consequences for Indonesia’s constitutional democracy. If the results of these elections are not ratified by opposition parties, for example, it could result in serious political confrontations between parties and would prevent the presidential elections from going ahead, creating a constitutional vacuum.

It will be one more plus for Indonesian democracy if a compromise is accepted by the parties and the general public. This compromise would see all legitimate complaints brought to the Constitutional Court, and the presidential election will go ahead following efforts to improve the voters list.

However, this acceptance can be revoked if too many voters (say above 20 percent or 35 million) are still unable to vote for whatever reason, or due to excessive political maneuvering by President  Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) to limit the competition.

Another challenge to democracy could be seen in the presidential elections. The 20 percent of seats in the DPR that the Democratic Party (PD) won is a real achievement, but it is not decisive enough to guarantee a stable and successful government, even though SBY is likely to win this presidential election as many predict.

This election will be a prelude to the 2014 elections when a new generation of leaders is expected to take over, and therefore is considered important in defining the country’s future.

The SBY coalition now consists of PD and 4 Islamic or Islam-based parties: The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP). The PD won because of SBY’s popularity, but his party does not have a strong ideology, infrastructure or leaders. It can be expected that PKS and the three other Islam-based parties will fill this vacuum.

To a certain extent this has already been happening, although their influence is rather limited due to the presence of other parties, especially Golkar.

Things will be different when PD and SBY form a coalition with only Islam-based parties, especially the conservative PKS. The Islam-based parties are not always friendly toward each other, but on ideological matters they tend to stick together and can become a formidable united front to lobby SBY and his government.

Since SBY is generally perceived  as a weak leader, there is the concern that he will give in on many ideological issues as already happened with the case of the 50 districts or so that have adopted Sharia Law; the anti-pornography legislation; and the Ahmadiyah case. This concern has been expressed by Muslims and non-Muslims alike.

PKS is not seen as having accepted pluralism, and although they have not openly campaigned for imposing Islamic Law, they will not oppose the implementation of Sharia Law in Indonesia in the future.

What SBY has done by forming a coalition between PD and the Islamic parties could be dangerous for the future development of plurality and democracy in Indonesia.

It will also lead to the emergence of two blocs, namely a heavily Islam-based coalition (in which PD will be considered a lightweight) and another coalition that is nationalist-based: Golkar Party,  the Indonesian Democratic Party of struggle (PDI-P), the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) and  the Great Indonesia Party (Gerindra), that could create political instability due to ideological confrontations.

The opposition in parliament will be critical and should be strengthened. A united front consisting of PDI-P, the Golkar, Gerindra and Hanura parties has been proclaimed at the end of April. They will have around 40 percent of the seats – about even with those of the SBY coalition.

The role and position of the opposition is very critical in a democracy. Opposition parties not only influence policies and can control the government through legislation and the budget, but also have time and opportunities to consolidate themselves and to formulate strategies to respond effectively to emerging challenges faced by the nation, and in so doing win the following elections.

The second challenge is created by the rise of Lt. Gen. (ret) Prabowo and his Gerindra Party. He is still a very controversial person due to his role as the Army’s Special Forces (Kopassus) and Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad) commander at the end of the Soeharto regime. This has been clearly described in Lt. General (Ret) Sintong Pandjaitan’s memoirs.

Prabowo will be opposed by many, despite his well run campaigns.

It remains to be seen whether he will be able to build his democratic credentials and clean up his tarnished record in five years to come, to emerge as a credible leader in 2014.

The third challenge is the fragmentation of the opposition into two pairs of candidates, one led by Megawati Soekarnoputri and another one by Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who is also the Golkar Party chairman.

At this stage, it is clear that independently neither of them has a chance against the popular SBY. Only if they can join forces, perhaps with the involvement of other parties (at least Hanura and Gerindra) will they have a fighting chance. That is why they must put aside their personal ambitions and interests.

It is critical for the future of democracy in Indonesia that there will be a good and balanced competition for the presidency.

The writer is the vice chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees

{

Your Opinion Counts

Your thoughts matter - share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.

Enter at least 30 characters
0 / 30

Thank You

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.