I

f the soft touches of moral politik have not worked, perhaps it is time to employ the hard-hitting reality of tough love diplomacy and real politik.

The 18-month house arrest verdict against Aung San Suu Kyi, effectively ruling out any possibility of her participation in Myanmar's scheduled election next year, is an affront to the fraternity of Southeast Asian nations, which so steadfastly stood by the military regime in an attempt to faintly liberalize the junta's political system.

Not only is it a smack in the face for the one-year-old ASEAN Charter, but it also stains the credibility of the soon-to-be established ASEAN human rights body.

"The world will certainly question *the court verdict on Suu Kyi*," President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remarked on Wednesday as he rightly rebuked the decision.

In fact the world, and many within ASEAN itself, has long questioned the groupings yielding approach to Myanmar. The answer is now wholly apparent: it does not work. The persistent deference to "constructive engagement" has weakened ASEAN's bargaining position and only emboldened the military regime further.

ASEAN officials, when criticized about Myanmar, have rhetorically replied: "What can we actually do?" But the question is not "what", but do they have the political will to do so.

Yudhoyono's call for ASEAN chair Thailand to call a ministerial meeting on this issue was the correct course of action, but fell slightly short of potential. He should have instead called for an immediate summit meeting.

By only calling for a ministerial meeting, he is putting less weight on what is already an egregious situation.

"In the case of a serious breach of the Charter.the matter shall be referred to the ASEAN Summit," reads Art. 20 of the ASEAN Charter.

Myanmar's premeditated action can clearly be construed as non-compliance to the Charter, which stipulates the promotion of social justice, adherence to the principles of democracy and upholding the UN Charter.

Indonesia's call was bold, but lacked the robustness required. Ministers will labor over the potency of words, but only leaders can take action.

In the framework of the regional balance of power, Indonesia and ASEAN must also candidly reassess ASEAN's strategic influence on Myanmar.

A country's strength in traditional security is measured by its smart power (a mixture of soft and hard power) and the loyalty of its allies. Myanmar's smart power may be negligible, but it has the most powerful ally in the world: China.

Next to the Asian dragon, ASEAN nations are rambunctious pygmies poking dull spears at the belly of the beast. China has already said the "international society should fully respect Myanmar's judicial sovereignty.This not only accords with Myanmar's interests, it is also beneficial to regional stability".

The key word here is the kind of "regional stability" Beijing wishes to construct. China has invested too much in the current status quo: Its key bilateral agreement with Myanmar signed just two days before the 1988 uprising, and an all-important 2,250-kilometer pipeline also transporting oil and gas to China's landlocked Yunnan province.

While it may publicly support Myanmar's so-called "Road Map to Democracy", Beijing may also be apprehensive of the kind of instability brought about by open elections. Nor has Beijing forgotten that Suu Kyi has emotional ties to India, which sheltered the Aung San family during the 1960s upheaval.

In the event of a democracy, it would be no surprise that India, not China, would be the gravitating point of the new Myanmar.

The best way to induce domestic progress in Myanmar, hence, may not be talking to the military junta but using ASEAN's economic and political leverage with China.

Diplomatically jousting Beijing away from a suckling Myanmar toward an economically more potential ASEAN is a way and a means to address the suspicions that both regional giants India and China may harbor vis-*-vis Myanmar.

A diplomatic chess game would allow ASEAN to play China and India against Myanmar, and not China against ASEAN for the benefit of Myanmar.

The only winner in the present constellation is the ruling military junta. ASEAN is losing credibility and becoming politically divided, while India remains suspicious of everything that is happening on its northeastern border.

A strategic real politik rethink that discards the pleasantries of ASEAN decorum must begin. Talking to the military regime will be useless if ASEAN does not befriend the dragon and idly stands by as a recalcitrant problem child tramples the pygmies.