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It has been a long journey from Bali to Copenhagen
People from over 190 nations are converging on Copenhagen for the Party of the Century
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P
eople from over 190 nations are converging on Copenhagen for the Party of the Century. Actually it's not really a party, but arguably the most important intergovernmental summit in history.
Officially called the Conference of the Parties (COP), the next fortnight will see Copenhagen hosting the 15th such confab on the critical issue of climate change.
As one of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, Indonesia is seen as a key player at the talks in Denmark. And President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be heading there next week to underline Indonesia's enthusiasm in playing a leading role at the meeting.
With the original 1997 Kyoto Treaty due to expire, it is hoped the details of a new legally binding agreement will be thrashed out between the countries of the world in the coming days.
The stakes are high, as scientists warn that failure to reach a consensus could have catastrophic consequences on our planet that is already suffering from the effects of global warming.
Exactly two years ago, Bali was the venue for the 13th COP when the so-called Roadmap to Copenhagen was agreed and Indonesia's President demonstrated his passion for solving the problem.
But subsequent meetings have revealed a treacherously winding road full of bumps and potholes.
Diverging interests, especially between rich and poor countries, have inevitably made the negotiations extremely difficult and complex.
The challenge is to substantially reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, which most climatologists say are a significant contributor to global warming.
Only a handful of maverick and often questionable experts now doubt that our increased production of CO2 and other gases is the central cause of global warming.
The 21-year-old Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - established by the UN Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization, which comprises hundreds of the world's most eminent scientists - has long concluded that measures must urgently be introduced to prevent a global temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius.
Managing Indonesia's forests by curbing illegal logging and forest fires - which accounts for nearly a fifth of greenhouse gas pollution by Indonesia, Brazil and tropical Africa - is seen as a vital step in reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
It was in Bali that forestry was first put on the international climate change agenda when the so-called REDD program (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) was tabled.
Unlike Kyoto, a new treaty is expected to tackle deforestation, which alone accounts for one-fifth of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.
Developing nations like Indonesia, which preserves forests, would be paid with carbon credits they could sell to industrialized nations seeking to meet emissions reduction targets.
Newly appointed Environment Minister Gusti Muhammad Hatta believes forest abuse can be halted if more funds are made available to ensure effective law enforcement.
In spite of tough Indonesian legislation, the lethal cocktail of illegal logging combined with misguided "slash and burn" practices is releasing hundreds of thousands of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Hatta, who has a doctorate in forestry from Wageningen University in the Netherlands and founded a forestry research center in Kalimantan, believes these devastating practices can be stopped with sufficient resources.
But Indonesia only has 220 civil guards in the whole country which can directly arrest people found breaching the law and brings them to trial.
He says more than a 1,000 such guards are needed to be effective, which would require the budget to be doubled to Rp 800 billion.
Reaching an agreement that satisfies the needs of nearly 200 sovereign states is not easy. And some are predicting Copenhagen will end in a deadlock.
As a witness to all these curiously named Conferences of the Parties, I am cautiously optimistic that an agreement will be reached.
We can expect reports of intransigence with forecasts of gloom and doom over the coming days. And it likely that success will appear elusive until the final hour when good sense will ultimately emerge.
Brinkmanship is an intrinsic part of these international negotiations. The Bali talks appeared destined for failure and overran by a day with grown men seen weeping in fear of what looked like an inevitable collapse.
Thankfully sufficient consensus was eventually reached. And permission was granted to proceed along the Road to Copenhagen.
With more than 25,000 people now gathering in temperatures well below 10 degrees Celsius, let us hope our leaders will find the warmth of heart needed to establish a new treaty in the cold Danish capital.
Climate change is the issue of the century. Success in Copenhagen is the only option.
Jonathan Wootliff leads the Corporate Accountability practice at the consulting firm, Reputation Partners. He specializes in sustainable development and in building of productive relationships between companies and NGOs. He can be contacted at jonathan@reputationpartners.com
