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When will Barack Obama eventually visit Indonesia?

Indonesian press did not pay attention so much on the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi last week

Awidya Santikajaya (The Jakarta Post)
Washington,DC
Fri, August 6, 2010

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When will Barack Obama  eventually visit Indonesia?

I

ndonesian press did not pay attention so much on the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi last week. Hillary Clinton saidPresident Obama expressed interest in attending the 2011 East Asia Summit (EAS) in Jakarta.

The US, together with Russia, has been formally invited by ASEAN foreign ministers to join the EAS. As Rizal Sukma wrote in this newspaper, I also agree that the good intention of both countries should be welcomed.

But, Clinton’s statement creates another curiosity. If President Obama will visit Jakarta next year, does it mean he will perpetuate his serial postponement of visiting Indonesia?

Last June the president re-scheduled his visit to November 2010. It will not be impossible for him to visit Indonesia twice during his term. However, weighing the US priorities on foreign policy, it unlikely
will happen.

Above all, to attend the EAS is preferable by the US. First, the US seems to contend “Russia’s assertiveness” on the region. Russia had been persistent in wanting to join the EAS since 2005 when it was invited as a special guest by host Malaysia. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is also scheduled to attend the second ASEAN-Russia Summit this October.

Thus, it is a high possibility that President Medvedev will not miss next year’s EAS Summit because Russia will not want to lose its momentum to engage countries in the region.

Second, ignoring the EAS Summit or just sending a secretary will undermine the US interest in East Asia.

In last week’s ARF, Secretary Hillary played crucial roles in some issues, including, but not limited to condemning the attack on South Korean warships and to encourage the new negotiation on South China Sea disputes.

However, Obama’s presence in the summit will eventually raise a degree of seriousness of US concern in the region more.

Third, the EAS is the best regional means to rival China’s interests in the Pacific, especially considering the fact that another forum, the APEC, is too broad and too loose.


“If Obama fulfills his promise this November (and also another visit next year), he will be praised as one of the most well-respected US presidents in history.”

To Indonesia, it is not easy to get momentum as good as the last March and June canceled trips. In those two times, Indonesia was always unrivaled in the top priority of Obama’s visit to Asia.

In contrast, for his November planned trip, Obama has several countries on his itinerary. This June, Obama  announced he would visit India in November. Obama, in his National Security Strategy, clearly mentions that the US-India alliance will be one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century.

Both countries have highly mutual interests. The US needs India’s support in its policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

India needs the US’s back up to improve its “civil” nuclear power, to maintain its claim over Kashmir, and to hold a candle to China-Pakistan alliance.

Japan is also in Obama’s November schedule where he will attend the APEC Summit in Yokohama.

Despite some critique toward APEC’s ineffectiveness, traditionally the US presidents always attends the APEC Summit.

In addition, on November, Obama will be super busy endorsing Democratic candidates in the battlefield of Senate elections. Those agendas seem to be prioritized by Obama on November.

The next question will be, is Indonesia as important as those agendas? The planned visit of Obama to Indonesia has been widely perceived as the symbolic importance of relations between the West and Islamic world, advanced and emerging democratic countries, and global vis avisa representative of mid-level political powers.

However, realpolitik must be understood that those symbols cannot satisfyingly explain suitability of both Indonesia and the US’ national interest.

To the US, there are three current focuses of foreign policy: (1) to maintain its global dominance; (2) to collect support for its campaigns on Afghanistan and the Middle East; and (3) to restore its economy.

In those senses, tremendous democratic achievement by Indonesia does not automatically raise Indonesia’s leverage toward the US.

Indonesia already declared itself as a “bridge” between the West and Islamic worlds. Nevertheless, will Indonesia be able to create a “unique bridge” since this brand is actually utilized by other countries as well, such as Turkey?

Moreover, the definition of “bridge” seems to be stuck in interfaith dialogues or sharing experiences.

It will be more valuable if Indonesia could transform the “bridge” to become a more active tool to reach out to Islamic countries, for example, by campaigning democracy in the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC).

In the Middle East conflict, Indonesia could resolve the US difficulty in creating long-lasting peace, for example by encouraging Hamas to join the peace dialogue.

As compensation, Indonesia could propose to the US that the negotiation must invite Muslim-majority countries and organizations.

To visit Indonesia in the framework of a regional forum, rather than purely bilaterally is to some extent understandable.

First, the US does not want to treat Indonesia as special, considering “potential jealousy” of US two treaty allies in the region (Thailand and the Philippines).

Second, strategically and economically, the US still sees that Indonesia will not fully “satisfy” US interests.

Beside the political issue as explained above, in terms of economic cooperation the Indonesia-US trade volume is below to the US and Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.

In addition, beside the EAS Summit, next year’s visit will be the perfect time for Obama to hold the ASEAN-US Summit after this year’s summit will take place in New York, not in Hanoi.

Another postponement may disappoint Obama supporters who enthusiastically celebrated his victory more than a year ago, who already erected his statue, and who claim themselves his childhood friends.

But it will not create massive antipathy toward the US and Obama.

Still, if Obama fulfills his promise this November (and also another visit next year), Indonesians will praise him as one of the most well-respected US presidents in history.



The writer is a graduate student at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC.

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