H

ow will Yingluck Shinawatra rule Thailand after she led her Pheu Thai party to a landslide election victory on Sunday? How much of the decisions she makes as the new prime minister will be dictated by her brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, the real power behind the party, who is currently living in exile? How long will the Bangkok political elite tolerate this government-by-proxy, and how long will it be before the Thai military, with the nod of the king, decides to step in again and seize power?

In any other democracy, a landslide victory means a decisive mandate from the people for the winners to govern. But this is not the case in Thailand, unfortunately. Instead, the election outcome has created greater uncertainty about the nation’s future.

Thaksin is a controversial if not divisive figure. A successful businessman, he exploited loopholes in the constitution and used his wealth to ride into power until he was deposed by the military in 2006. Living in exile, he continues to pull strings. In 2010, he mobilized supporters to occupy and paralyze much of Bangkok. More than 91 people died when the military moved in to break them up. Ahead of Sunday’s election, Thaksin promoted his youngest sister to lead his party with the slogan “Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts”, but Thailand’s new prime minister has no experience in government or politics.

The only decisive outcome from the election is the message sent to the political elite in Bangkok about the growing wealth gap that has split the nation between the urban rich and rural poor. This has translated in recent years to the “yellow shirts” and “red shirts” in street protests and counter-protests. Unless the political elite (meaning political parties), the monarchy and the military address this disparity, Thailand will be effectively made up of two nations largely defined by their income levels. This will make its democracy vulnerable to exploitation by politicians with lots of money.

To their credit, Yingluck and outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party have both promised to work to bury the division. It is certainly a tall order, given the bloodbath that has developed between pro-Thaksin forces and the political elite in Bangkok, but reconciliation is the only way for the nation to move forward. The military should also give democracy another chance. And Thailand will, sooner or later, have to do something about Thaksin.