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ne of the strongest macroeconomic indicators of the Indonesian economy in 2011 was its strong export growth. Despite weak growth in some of its major markets and financial turbulence from the debt crisis in Europe, exports showed robust growth from January to October. High commodity prices in the first half of 2011 and strong demand from Asia have greatly benefited Indonesian exports in 2011.

Imports grew strongly in 2011, outpacing export growth, which reflects the strong growth of the economy. Around 92 percent of imports consist of raw materials and capital goods, and their strong growth indicates heightened production and investment activities.

Efforts to resolve the debt crisis in Europe will depend on the determination of eurozone policymakers to make a breakthrough in formulating credible and comprehensive policies to manage the debt problems. A combination of austerity measures and weak banking systems in the eurozone risk sending the global economy into slower growth and probably recessionary periods in some countries. The scarcity of trade financing may hurt world trade. These are the kinds of risk that are facing Indonesian exports in 2012.

Indonesian export growth in 2012 will also depend on economic growth in some major destination c ountries. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic growth in countries that make up the major destinations of Indonesian exports will be lower in 2012. US economic growth is projected to slow from 2.0 percent in 2011 to 1.8 percent in 2012.

Over the same period, growth in eurozone is expected to drop from 1.6 percent to 1.1 percent. The Japanese economy, after being battered by the tsunami and earthquake, suffered a drop in growth of 0.5 percent last year, but is projected to recover strongly in 2012 with growth of 2.3 percent.

In China, growth is projected to fall from 9.5 percent in 2011 to 9 percent in 2012, while growth in India over the same period is expected to fall from 7.8 percent to 7.5 percent. Growth in China and India matters for Indonesian exports because both economies have emerged as major markets for some of Indonesia’s major commodities.

Supported by high commodity prices during the first half of 2011, Indonesian exports grew strongly from January to October. Total exports reached $169 billion, up 35 percent from the same period in 2010. Of the three major commodity exports that made up nearly 40 percent of total non-oil and gas exports, all showed robust growth; mineral fuel was up 49 percent, edible oils was up 43 percent, and rubber and rubber products surged by 67 percent. Exports to ASEAN, the biggest Indonesian export market, rose by 25 percent. But the most robust growth was export to China and India, which surged by 61 percent and 46 percent, respectively.

Prospects for Indonesian exports in 2012 will be shaped by existing patterns which are not likely to change in the short term. First, the fact that 50 percent of Indonesian exports consist of only four commodities (oil and gas, coal, palm oil, and rubber). This makes Indonesian exports vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations in the international market. Second, commodity prices are volatile, uncertain and subject to some external factors such as geopolitical tension and weather anomalies.

Oil and natural gas exports contributed 20 percent of total exports. Oil prices during much of the year remained high due to political instability in the Middle East and North Africa. Prices dropped slightly in the third quarter of 2011 and continued to show volatility as a result of the debt crisis in Europe.

However, prices stayed above $100 per barrel. But Indonesia will not fully benefit from these high prices, because its oil production continues to decline. Average daily production in 2011 was 908,000 barrels, down from 945,000 barrels in 2010. Oil and gas exports could decline further in 2012, at a time when domestic demand would increase because of strong economic growth.

Coal is another major Indonesian commodity export contributing 13 percent of total exports. Around 60 percent of Indonesian coal exports went to China, India and Japan. Continuing expansion of electricity generators in China and India should ensure strong demand for Indonesian coal exports. Export growth for coal should remain solid in 2012, since a large part of the exports is headed for China and India, two countries that have the fastest economic growth rates in the world.

Crude palm oil (CPO) exports grew 43 percent on the year to October. CPO prices rose by 12 percent to $1,251 per ton in first quarter of 2011, but have declined to $1,079 per ton in the third quarter. Around 55 percent of CPO exports went to three countries (China, India and the EU).

Because a sizeable portion of CPO exports goes to China and India, export growth of CPO at least in terms of volume will be ensured in 2012.

Rubber: up to September this year, rubber and rubber product exports reached $11.1billion, a whopping 70 percent increase over the previous year. But during 2011, its price peaked at $572 per ton, and has since dropped to $498 per ton. The performance of rubber exports was largely tied to developed economies, as 55 percent of exports went to the US, the EU and Japan. The recovery of automotive industries in the US and Japan, albeit slow, should be a good sign for rubber exports next year. In the third quarter of 2011, rubber exports to China have surpassed exports to Japan, making China the third-biggest buyer of Indonesian rubber. Export growth should still be solid next year although less robust than this year.

Textiles: like rubber, Indonesian textile exports still depend largely on markets in developed countries. Around 55 percent of textile exports went to the US, the EU and Japan. The US is the biggest market for Indonesian textiles, accounting for a full one-third of its exports.

Despite tough economic conditions in those markets, textile exports grew a respectable 23 percent up to September this year. However, exports to the EU dropped by 7 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter. Indonesian textiles will face problems with competitiveness as mandated regional minimum wages take effect next year. Since textile industries will have to face higher wage costs, export growth may slow in 2012.

The writer is an economist.