TheJakartaPost

Please Update your browser

Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.

Jakarta Post

Insight: Obama or Romney, America cannot ignore Asia

In the run up to the US presidential election today, there has been a lot of speculation about the impact of the outcome on Asia

Rizal Sukma (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Tue, November 6, 2012

Share This Article

Change Size

Insight: Obama or Romney, America cannot ignore Asia

I

n the run up to the US presidential election today, there has been a lot of speculation about the impact of the outcome on Asia. For one, if President Barack Obama manages to secure a second term in office, it is almost certain that US policy toward Asia will continue to stay the same, with a considerable degree of continuity in its strategy, agenda and style.

Under an Obama second term, the US will continue to assert itself as a resident Pacific power; a power that pursues a strategy of strategic rebalancing — both military and economic — in the region. President Obama will continue the current foreign policy objective of sustaining American primacy in the region, while assuring China that it will be an American partner in the Asian Century as long as it subscribes to existing international rules, norms and principles.

If Mitt Romney wins, there is speculation that US foreign policy will soon change. Citing Romney’s tough remarks on China during his campaign, many worry that Sino-US relations might deteriorate. Moreover, US attention will once again turn to somewhere other than Asia. As the ongoing volatile transition in the Arab world and Iran’s nuclear problem continue to present foreign policy challenges to the US, a Romney presidency would once again draw America into its traditional and obsessive preoccupation with the Middle East. In other words, under a Romney presidency, the current US re-balancing strategy in Asia might be modified and the US would once again “leave” Asia.

While one can be sure that an Obama presidency will ensure continuity in America’s approach to Asia, it is too early to judge that a Romney presidency would depart dramatically from the current course set by the Obama administration in its policy toward Asia. One should not be hasty to speculate that a Romney presidency would be a bad news for Sino–US relations. Similarly, it would be reckless for anyone to argue that the US would leave Asia.

The question has never been, and certainly is not, whether the US will stay or leave Asia. America has never left Asia. It has always been “in” Asia and will continue to be. Under Obama or Romney, the US cannot leave Asia even if it wants to. Asia is too important for the US to ignore, even in the face of mounting challenges facing the US in other parts of the world. For Asia, the right question is about the nature of America’s role and presence in Asia.

Either under an Obama or Romney presidency, America’s Asia policy will continue to be dictated by two main imperatives. First, it has to deal with China, whose rise will certainly limit American influence in Asia. Here, there is hardly any significant difference between the two presidential candidates. Both President Obama and Romney believe that the US should continue to build a cooperative relationship with China while maintaining US supremacy and leadership in Asia. It is hard to believe that Romney, if he becomes the US president, would turn his tough rhetoric on China into practice. Realpolitik and interests — not idealism, personality or even values — will dictate American policy toward China.

Second, in its attempt to sustain primacy in Asia, whoever occupies the White House will have to address growing perceptions in the region of the US’ decline. That means US policy toward Asia will need to maintain focus on (a) checking China’s growing influence, (b) strengthening and expanding economic engagement, and (c) maintaining and strengthening the relationship with regional allies and partners. While this has been President Obama’s policy over the last four years, Romney has also promised to do that.

In other words, whoever wins today’s election, Asia will continue to face the same strategic challenge it has been facing over the last four years. Countries in the region, including Indonesia, will still have to deal with the prospect of a growing strategic rivalry between the US and China. For the US, ignoring Asia is no longer an option. Both the US and Asia, however, are bound by a shared interest in ensuring that an Asian Century will be marked more by prosperity and stability rather than by rivalry.

The writer is executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta.

{

Your Opinion Matters

Share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.

Enter at least 30 characters
0 / 30

Thank You

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.