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everal surveys have tipped incumbent West Java Governor Ahmad Heryawan and Vice Governor Dede Yusuf Macan Effendi as the frontrunners — albeit on different tickets — in the provincial gubernatorial election set for Sunday.

Some 32.5 million voters are eligible to go to the polls on Sunday, when five campaigns face judgment day as to who will lead Indonesia’s most populous province for the next five years.

The candidates comprise the independent campaign of Dikdik Mulyana Arief Mansyur and Cecep Nana Suryana Toyib; Irianto M.S. Syafiuddin and Tatang Farhanul Hakim, who are backed by the Golkar Party; Dede and Lex Laksamana, backed by the Democratic Party (PD), the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB); Heryawan and actor Deddy Mizwar, backed by the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the United Development Party (PPP); and lawmaker Rieke Diah Pitaloka and Teten Masduki, backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI-P).

Rieke, the only woman in the race, has consistently finished third in surveys, followed by Irianto with independent candidate Dikdik trailing the pack.

According to a survey conducted by the Statistical Studies and Expertise Center at Padjadjaran University (Unpad) in Bandung, West Java, almost one-third of voters — a staggering 10.4 million people — have yet to make up their minds, while a similar survey from the Indonesian Strategic Institute (Insrat) placed the figure at 25 percent.

A political observer from Unpad, Muradi, said that Heryawan, Dede or Rieke would likely triumph on Sunday. “The key is how to use the undecided voters, whose numbers are quite huge.”

“If they fail to maximize the undecided voters, the election’s results will not deviate from the surveys,” Muradi said.

The race can end in one round of voting if a campaign can obtain a majority or is the sole campaign to receive 30 percent of the total vote plus one vote.

While Muradi said that the race might go to a second round if undecided voters came out in force, the Unpad statistics center noted that Rieke and Teten have enjoyed a surge in support, as noted by three surveys.

“The electability of Rieke and Teten spiked by 12.37 percent, while the incumbent candidates only enjoyed growth of some 2 percent,” Unpad statistics center chief Toni Toharudin said.

Muradi said that Rieke and Teten might pull off a come-from-behind finish, as Rieke, a lawmaker and actress, might be accepted by lower-to-middle voters, while Teten, an anticorruption activist, might be welcomed by middle-to-upper class voters.

Rieke and Teten are also likely to get a boost from teachers across the province, as Teten is a graduate of the respected Indonesian Education University (UPI) in Bandung.

They will not, however, get support from bureaucrats and law enforcement officers, who may fear an electoral breakout similar to that recorded by Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in Jakarta’s gubernatorial race.

As for Heryawan and Deddy, Muradi said Deddy was a burden. Although the famous actor was a vote getter, voters thought Deddy would be unlikely to perform if elected.

“Although the campaign gets huge support from numerous Islamic religious leaders, this will not help much,” he said.