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olitical competition in the last two years has been fascinating. Heading toward the 2014 elections, everyone in Indonesia is looking at Jakarta Governor Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo'€™s performance and his chance to run for president.

Jokowi, as various opinion polls have shown, holds the key to victory. It would be foolish for his political party to leave him behind in the 2014 race. Apparently, that party '€” the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) '€” sees Jokowi as the only way to win votes in both the legislative and presidential elections next year.

However, the scenario raises concerns regarding the internal dynamics between populism, derived from Jokowi'€™s direct popular appeal, and the prevailing patronage system within the PDI-P.

During the party'€™s coordination meeting a few months ago, there were two camps: those who supported leader and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri to run for the third time as the party'€™s presidential candidate, and local PDI-P cadres who favored Jokowi, the former mayor of Surakarta, as their presidential candidate.

There are two questions here. First, what are the political consequences if the PDI-P is willing to back Jokowi'€™s bid to run for Indonesia'€™s highest office? Second, how can Jokowi exert and maintain his popularity amid the dominance of a few wealthy people or oligarchs in the national political landscape?

The PDI-P is a traditional party that has based its appeal on the legacy of Indonesia'€™s first president Sukarno and his nationalist vision.

However, this party is virtually controlled by Sukarno'€™s descendants. Since it was established in 1999, the PDI-P has been in the hands of Megawati and her family.

Every single policy has been overseen by Megawati and she has been viewed as a symbol of unity within the party. Jokowi knows exactly what his party requires to back presidential candidates and he knows he has to maintain close relations with Megawati.

This fact is pivotal in analyzing the way the party, or to a lesser extent its chairwoman, shapes Indonesia'€™s future under Jokowi if he becomes president next year.

Recently, Megawati has been accompanying Jokowi on visits to grass roots supporters, emulating his meetings with the people.

This is unique given her profile as an elitist, as she has made such visits mostly only in her political campaigns.

Jokowi also frequently visits Megawati'€™s house to discuss international and local issues. Jokowi even reported the progress of local Jakarta projects such as the Pluit Dam and the relocation of vendors around the Tanah Abang textile market to the former Indonesian president.

Looking ahead, it is hard to judge what sort of president Jokowi would make. However, the signs are that Megawati will influence Jokowi, particularly on crucial polices such as appointing Cabinet ministers and high-ranking officials.

This is more likely to occur given the close relationship between the two prominent figures. Jokowi himself has so far exhibited how Megawati is highly important in his tenure as Jakarta'€™s governor as well as a leading PDI-P member.

Beside the close relationship between Jokowi and his chairwoman, another crucial issue is Jokowi'€™s own popularity. He does not have the same material sources as other figures such as Prabowo Subianto, Aburizal Bakrie, Surya Paloh and Jusuf Kalla.

On the one hand, popularity is crucial for Jokowi to mobilize support from the middle and lower class as was proved in last year'€™s Jakarta gubernatorial election.

Jokowi emerged when the current government failed to address the needs of a large constituency, creating conditions ripe for populism. In other words, it was a movement, a reaction to a deficient political system.

The people felt neglected in some way by their government and the populist leader appealed to this, suggesting he could better represent their political desires.

On the other hand, this popularity is apparently not quite strong enough to tame the oligarchy that has continued to influence and even '€œhijack'€ Indonesia'€™s democracy after the downfall of former president Soeharto, as some scholars have noted.

Jokowi is popular mainly due to heavy media coverage since he was Surakarta mayor.

He will remain vulnerable amid the oligarchs, and will need to acknowledge the financial backing and other support given to him if he runs for president.

The 2012 gubernatorial election is the best example of how Jokowi'€™s candidacy has benefited from the financial backing of oligarchs. Last year, Tempo detailed the funding of his gubernatorial candidacy.

Though his campaign team denied the report, it is widely known that Indonesia is a high cost democracy. Oligarchs will provide a vast amount of money to Jokowi if he runs for president, but they in turn will have to be rewarded '€” leading to concerns over the extent to which Jokowi can distance himself from their influence.

Jokowi has to cut himself away from the circle of elites and oligarchs even though it will take a long time. Democracy does not merely require electability and popularity '€” but the competency to become an independent figure amid the prevailing power of the few.