E

xpectations for this year's elections are understandably high. They are to be very important for the nation, as was the first general election in 1955 and the second, after a hiatus of 16 years, in 1971. The coming elections are also important because they are expected to bring in an entirely new leader for Indonesia.

The last four presidents were from the Soeharto era and voters are tired of the old generation and would like to welcome a new and younger leadership. In short, people want change!

This desire for change helped Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo win the Jakarta gubernatorial race over a year ago, despite the incumbent having more money and political clout at his disposal. Two surveys that the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted in April and November 2013 indicated that the pressure for change
was strong.

A CSIS survey in July 2012 found that retired Army general Prabowo Subianto was the leading presidential candidate at that time. However, the last two CSIS surveys of 2013 showed that Jokowi had become the overwhelming choice: with supporters from across the board.

His electability in the April 2013 survey was almost 2:1 to that of Prabowo's (26.6 percent vs 15.6 percent), while in the November survey it was 3:1 (34.7 percent vs 10.7 percent). Thus, Jokowi's candidacy should be seriously considered.

The second reason why Jokowi should run is that only Jokowi can beat Prabowo. In addition to his higher populist support, the political winds are blowing strongly toward Jokowi, who is also getting approval from supporters of other parties, namely the Golkar Party (22.7 percent), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P (63.6 percent), Democratic Party (42.7 percent) and the Gerindra Party(20.6 percent).

The third reason is Jokowi's coattails effect in the legislative election is incredibly high. If the PDI-P announces him as its presidential candidate before the April 9 legislative election, he will be able to increase the party's votes for the House of Representatives from 17.6 percent to 29 percent plus, giving the nationalist party an additional 75 seats. This step would also mean that the PDI-P alone would be in a position to nominate its presidential candidate if the threshold of 20 percent of the legislative seats or 25 percent of the popular votes is maintained.

Its legislative members will also help a future PDI-P president, because a coalition with Golkar alone can secure a majority of legislative votes.

While Jokowi is the most popular candidate for the PDI-P, his candidacy depends on party chair Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is being careful. She has many factors to consider, but I trust that Megawati will eventually make the right decision for Indonesia and the PDI-P.

Many have commented that Jokowi's potential weakness is his limited national experience. Therefore, he needs a vice presidential candidate who is well versed in administrative work, like the duet of Sukarno and Mohammad Hatta had shown: One who had the people's trust and the other who got things done.

But, it is also true that Jokowi is street smart and enjoys the people's trust as surveys have shown. He is also a principled pluralist. Although a tough choice for Megawati, we trust she will have the nation's interest in her heart, above everything else.