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Could 2014 be turning point for Dems?
âI have good news,â President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, chairman of the Democratic Party, told participants of the partyâs recent presidential convention in Bogor, West Java
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'I have good news,' President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, chairman of the Democratic Party, told participants of the party's recent presidential convention in Bogor, West Java. 'I just received a survey result from a credible pollster that will bring happiness to PD [the Democratic Party]. It turns out that the electability gap between PD and the number one party is only 6 percent.'
Several days later, at a gathering with editorial leaders of national media outlets, Yudhoyono referred to a survey he 'trusted', which had ranked the Democratic Party as the country's third most-electable political party. The President said, as quoted by several media sources, that the Democrats' electability stood at 10 percent, below the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle's (PDI-P) 16.3 percent and the Golkar Party's 15.4 percent.
His statements were in fact an admission of the party's deteriorating electability, at least when compared to its winning performance in the last election in 2009. But analysts see it as Yudhoyono's way to boost the optimism of his party members.
One study by the Indo Barometer in January, for example, put the Democratic Party as the fourth most-electable party, albeit with only 4.6 percent, as opposed to the PDI-P's 35.8 percent. Another study by Kompas, also in January, showed that the party's electability was 7.2 percent, while the PDI-P's was 21.8 percent.
According to these surveys, the Democratic Party's electability rating has tumbled the most among the parties that contested the 2009 election, when the Democrats won 21 percent of the vote. The victory entitled the party to 148, or 26.4 percent, of the total 560 seats in the House of Representatives.
Former youth and sports minister Andi Mallarangeng, who was also formerly part of the Democratic Party's executive, once boasted that the party could make headway in 2014 and win 30 percent of votes. Andi has since been charged with graft and, hence, has played his own part in the party's electability nose-dive.
The overall impact has multiplied, however, as Andi is not the only high-profile Democrat charged with corruption. There are dozens of others, including those close to Yudhoyono's family, who have been implicated in a number of corruption cases.
Among them are former party chairman Anas Urbaningrum; former treasurer Muhammad Nazaruddin; former Bengkulu governor Agusrin Najamuddin, and former lawmakers Angelina Sondakh, Jufri and Amrun Daulay.
Anas was toppled during an extraordinary congress in Bali last year, due to a corruption case that Anas' supporters said had been 'engineered' to create a pretext to unseat him. The Bali congress also saw Yudhoyono being overwhelmingly elected as the new party chairman.
While the Yudhoyono-Anas feud seriously shook the party, outsiders saw the Bali decision as exacerbating conditions within the party, as it made the party look like a 'family party', given that Yudhoyono's son, Edhie 'Ibas' Baskoro, was the party's secretary-general.
Of course, any negative events relating to the Democratic Party, as the country's ruling party, were going to become media headlines. What exacerbated the party's downfall, however, were its poor damage control and media handling, particularly given its relative youth in Indonesia's political arena, Charta Politika analyst Arya Fernandes said.
Mohamad Ikhsan Modjo, the Democratic Party's head of finance, admitted that the party's declining popularity had affected its fund-raising program.
'Potential campaign donors, especially businesspeople, make pragmatic decisions ahead of an election. Today, many of them are choosing to support the PDI-P, whose popularity is continuing to rise,' he said.
Yudhoyono was among 99 figures who signed the pact establishing the party in 2001. The party was not considered a serious contender until Yudhoyono, then-coordinating political, legal and security affairs minister, was touted as a potential future leader of Indonesia in 2002.
It is believed that the party was initially established merely to serve as a political vehicle to nominate Yudhoyono in Indonesia's first ever direct presidential election in 2004. Until early 2004, Yudhoyono's popularity continued to rise due to his 'bitter' relationship with then-president Megawati Soekarnoputri. He then resigned from the Cabinet and announced that he would be running for president.
His falling out with Megawati made him appear the underdog, hence garnering people's sympathy. As a new player, the Democratic Party came fourth out of 23 competing parties in 2004, with a remarkable 7.45 percent of the vote, and won 57 House seats. Yudhoyono also won the presidential race.
Despite some shortcomings, Yudhoyono's administrations reflected his own popularity and that of his party. No wonder, then, that the party finished first in 2009 and Yudhoyono won his second term in office.
Some politicians jumped ship and joined the Democrats in a bid to enjoy the party's power, at least until Yudhoyono's second term ends in October.
However, Yudhoyono has become synonymous with the Democratic Party. He is the party's icon, if not mascot. The party's legislative candidates ensure that their pamphlets and stickers are emblazoned with photos of themselves alongside Yudhoyono.
The party's executive chairman and Cooperatives and Small and Medium Enterprises Minister Syariefuddin Hasan, acknowledged that the party was still heavily dependent on Yudhoyono to attract votes. He also admitted that the rampant grafts cases implicating Democratic Party members, along with the internal row surrounding Anas and his supporters, had prompted the party to scale down its election-gains target. 'I think it is not unrealistic to say we are now eyeing 15 percent of the vote,' he said.
'Promoting Yudhoyono's personality and trumpeting his successes as incumbent President is the key strategy of our campaign,' Syarief added.
It might work, of course, but it would not be as effective as it was in 2004 and 2009, according to Arya. 'The people who voted for the party and for Yudhoyono in the past elections know that their idol is not running again. Therefore, they will likely turn their attention to other presidential candidates and their respective parties. After all, the Democratic Party does not yet have a presidential candidate, despite its convention,' he said, referring to the party's ongoing convention, which he said was a 'brilliant strategy' to boost the party's plunging electability.
As many as 11 participants, including seven prominent figures from outside the party, are contesting the convention, which is expected to conclude a few weeks after the legislative election.
Analysts said the Democratic Party hoped supporters of individual participants would accumulatively translate into additional support for the party. Some surveys appear to back up this theory, albeit only slightly; leaving it difficult for the party to meet the nomination threshold: 25 percent of the vote or 20 percent of House seats.
'The prestige of being the current ruling party may drive the Democrats to insist on nominating a presidential candidate, by forming a coalition with smaller parties. Let's say such a coalition is formed, its candidate would still face a hard struggle to win the presidential race,' Arya said.
'In my opinion, a more realistic choice for the Democratic Party would be to nominate a vice president instead,' he added.
