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Party-based regional heads affect N. Sumatra election vote gains
Show of strength: Thousands of Golkar Party supporters attend a campaign rally in Medan, North Sumatra, last week
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Show of strength: Thousands of Golkar Party supporters attend a campaign rally in Medan, North Sumatra, last week. The party is upbeat it can win the province in the legislative election as its members lead the majority of regencies there. (Antara/Septianda Perdana) (Antara/Septianda Perdana)
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span class="inline inline-none">Show of strength: Thousands of Golkar Party supporters attend a campaign rally in Medan, North Sumatra, last week. The party is upbeat it can win the province in the legislative election as its members lead the majority of regencies there. (Antara/Septianda Perdana)
North Sumatra is the largest province outside Java in terms of population. Such potential, plus its heterogeneous structure in some parts of the province, has made it attractive for all political parties contesting this year's general election. The Jakarta Post's Apriadi Gunawan provides an analysis of the political constellation in the province and two sidebars in support of the main article.
Nikson Nababan was newly designated as regent of North Tapanuli by the Regional Elections Commission (KPUD) on March 12, before campaigning with greater confidence in the presence of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) deputy chairperson Puan Maharani at the Siborong-borong Hors Track in North Tapanuli last week.
'Now our election choice is No. 4, the PDI-P. Let's support the party's best legislative candidates. I'm sure the PDI-P will win the upcoming legislative and presidential elections. With the victory of the PDI-P at all levels, North Tapanuli will be on par with other advanced and prosperous regencies,' Nikson told party supporters at the track.
PDI-P North Tapanuli branch chairman Ottoniyer Simanjuntak said the success of Nikson would boost the vote gain in the legislative election. Simanjuntak has targeted 10 seats for the party in the North Tapanuli Regional Legislative Council (DPRD), which according to him is realistic as the post of regent for 2014-2019 was won by its cadre.
Nikson and his PDI-P running mate Mauliate Simorangkir in the second round of the North Tapanuli regional head election on March 6 garnered 72,735 votes, or 52.65 percent, while rival pair Saur Lumbantobing (younger brother of the present regent) and Manerep Manalu from the Golkar Party only secured 65,407 votes, or 47.35 percent.
PDI-P North Sumatra chapter secretary Muhammad Affan said the victory of Nikson constituted momentum for a revival of the PDI-P in North Sumatra. Affan acknowledged Nikson was the only PDI-P cadre who succeeded in the province's regional elections.
'The PDI-P has actually won several regional elections in North Sumatra but the regents or mayors elected are not party cadres so the PDI-P is frequently forgotten at the time it's most needed, like in the current elections,' Affan told The Jakarta Post recently.
However, Affan voiced optimism about his party's substantial achievement in the legislative elections slated for April 9, referring to the PDI-P targets of 24 percent at the provincial level and 27 percent at the national level.
'The targets can be achieved due to the solidity of party executives and members, coupled with increasing public confidence in the PDI-P, notably after the nomination of Jokowi as presidential candidate,' added Affan, who admitted some difficulty in reaching the goals because of the allegedly very pragmatic nature of present elections.
To confirm the PDI-P's increasing popularity in North Sumatra, Affan claimed all parts of the province as potential vote gainers for his party.
Control of the province, however, is not solely claimed by the PDI-P as Golkar ' which used to be a dominant force there ' also says the same. Golkar's North Sumatra chapter secretary Yaseer Ridho Lubis spoke of the area's vast potential, with almost half of the province's 33 regencies/cities now under Golkar members, such as a deputy provincial governor, nine regents/mayors and six deputy regents/mayors.
'They are Golkar's assets to win the legislative election in North Sumatra. The party has instructed all its members as regional heads to win the elections in their respective areas,' he said.
North Sumatra deputy governor T. Erry Nuradi from Golkar affirmed: 'I'm striving to assist Golkar in the elections, but most importantly all Golkar legislative candidates should also work hard.'
Golkar has targeted a 30 percent vote gain in North Sumatra. 'Golkar secured 13 percent in the 2009 elections, which should be raised to 30 percent this year,' said Ridho, who recognized the tough job ahead.
In reality, all parties have an equal chance to score maximum votes in the province as North Sumatra is an open arena for all parties to contest.
'Everything depends on the fighting spirit of legislative aspirants and the support of regional heads. Golkar has both assets now,' added Ridho.
Democratic Party North Sumatra secretary Tahan Manahan Panggabean also touted his strong legislative hopefuls and several regional heads set to gain victory for the party in the elections. Nine executive Democrats serve as regents/mayors in the province and he is convinced they will boost the party's vote returns in their regions.
Apart from the nine areas, the Democrats could also expect to win more votes in Langkat, Deli Serdang, Simalungun and Labuhan Batu regencies and Medan city, with the party's members filling the posts of DPRD speakers.
'The Democratic Party in North Sumatra this year will strive to maintain the election target at the level achieved in 2009, which was 27 percent. In the case of any decline, it should at least reach 20 percent,' Panggabean anticipated.
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) North Sumatra secretary Satrya Yudha Wibowo expressed his party's confidence in its competitiveness against other parties, despite the alleged involvement of top PKS members in a graft case.
'Even as the case was examined, the PKS still won the North Sumatra gubernatorial election,' Satrya said.
'Now as the case is over, the PKS is optimistic that 25 percent of the vote will be reaped in the North Sumatra legislative election,' he added.
In last year's gubernatorial election, the PKS fielded Gatot Pujo Nugroho to pair with Golkar's Erry Nuradi. The two defeated four pairs of governor-deputy governor posts, including the high-profile Effendi MS Simbolon and Jumiran Abdi of the PDI-P.
Gatot-Erry secured 1,604,337 votes or 33 percent and Effendi-Jumiran secured 1,183,187 votes or 24.34 percent.
Satrya detailed his party's five vote getters in the elections: PKS structures from districts to regencies/cities; 18,000 party members now being fostered; 1,000 legislative council candidates at all levels; the North Sumatra governor and deputy mayor of Binjai Timbas Tarigan as the party's public officials, and social media.
A lecturer from the School of Social and Political Sciences at North Sumatra University, Warjio, assured the role of regional heads in scooping votes in the legislative elections. He cited regional heads' capacity to utilize their authority to carry out various pre-election programs in the pursuit of public sympathy for their parties.
'This is what should be controlled, otherwise many regional heads might violate the law by abusing their power to launch certain programs to serve their parties' interests in the polls,' said Warjio.
While recognizing that political parties with many members as regional heads would have more chance of winning the elections in North Sumatra, Warjio still deemed it dependent on the behavior of the relevant officials in performing their public leadership.
In his view, Golkar has the biggest chance of emerging as North Sumatra's election winner because many of its members head regencies/cities. Golkar's majority vote will dominate the eastern coastal region of North Sumatra while the western coastal zone, so far under the Democratic Party, will vote for the PDI-P, he said.
Warjio noted an imminent shift on the map of political strengths in North Sumatra in the 2014 legislative elections, compared with the constellation in the 2009 elections, with most changes among several parties expected to face vote count declines in the province, like the Democratic Party, the PKS, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP).
The votes for these four parties, according to him, will shift to a number of other parties and will be mostly absorbed by the PDI-P, the Gerindra Party, the Hanura Party and the Nasdem Party.
Warjio attributed the Democratic Party's reduced vote gain more to the effect of news reporting on graft allegations against some of its members, as is the case with the PKS. Meanwhile, the PDI-P's likely improvement this year is the consequence of Jokowi's presidential candidacy, representing a transformation of people's aspirations.
'The PDI-P's vote count in North Sumatra will rise, overshadowing Golkar, while the Democratic Party will see some decreases but not too much,' added Warjio.
In the 2009 legislative election, the Democratic Party won in the province with 27 seats in the DPRD and 10 in the House of Representatives. Golkar ranked second with 13 seats in the DPRD and five seats in the House, followed by the PDI-P with 12 seats and four seats, and the PKS with 11 seats and three seats, respectively.
