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Parties likely to form three alliances for presidential election
Analysts predict that in the lead-up to the July 9 presidential election, political parties will likely form three groups in their efforts to nominate their presidential tickets
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nalysts predict that in the lead-up to the July 9 presidential election, political parties will likely form three groups in their efforts to nominate their presidential tickets.
Jakarta-based Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) predicted that parties would set up three coalitions, which it has named the Mutual Cooperation for National Struggle (Gotong Royong Perjuangan Bangsa or GRPB); the Indonesian Mandate for a Coalition Movement (Koalisi Gerakan Amanat Indonesia or KGAI); and the Democratic Coalition (Koalisi Karya Demokrat or KKD).
The SMRC's head of research, Djayadi Hanan, said that the GRPB coalition would include the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the NasDem Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB). Meanwhile, the KGAI would include the Gerindra Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN), while the KKD would be made up of the Golkar Party and the Democratic Party.
'A number of factors may influence [these] possibilities, including the parties' mass-support bases, the relationships between the party's leaders and the competence of the potential candidates proposed by each party,' Djayadi said in a discussion Sunday.
He said that the relationships between party leaders may also heavily influence the formation of such coalitions.
He said it was unlikely that the PDI-P, which got around 19 percent of the vote based on quick-count results, would collaborate with the Democratic Party, due to problems between party chairs Megawati Soekarnoputri and incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
The Democratic Party looks to have garnered 9.7 percent of the vote in the legislative election.
However, Djayadi also emphasized that all parties would weigh up the likelihood a coalition would have of winning the presidential election.
As none of the parties in the legislative election secured the 20 percent of the vote threshold to allow them to independently nominate their presidential and vice presidential candidates, the three parties that secured the largest share of the votes ' the PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra ' are forced to team up with other parties in order to do so.
While most parties said that they had yet to decide with whom they would ally for the presidential election, the PDI-P and NasDem appeared to have taken the bull by the horns and begun talks on a possible coalition.
NasDem said that it could support the candidacy of Jakarta Governor Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo.
Jokowi has said that the PDI-P would set up a small coalition so that it could prevent horse-trading and back-room deals.
Meanwhile, Marwan Djafar, a PKB executive, said on Sunday that his party was thoroughly considering all options before making a final decision on the party or parties it would build a coalition with.
Marwan said that the PKB, which garnered 9 percent of the quick count, is championing the nomination of party chairman Muhaimin Iskandar as vice president.
He said that to pave the way for the nomination of Muhaimin, who is also the current manpower and transmigration minister, the PKB had begun to instigate talks with other parties.
'The PKS has officially nominated Pak Muhaimin as a vice presidential candidate and this comes from within our party as well as our supporters nationwide. We always bring this up when speaking with other parties,' Marwan said.
Marwan said that so far, the PKB had spoken with Golkar to discuss a possible coalition.
Muhaimin, however, had previously held meetings with executives from the PDI-P and Gerindra.
Gerindra secretary-general Ahmad Muzani earlier said that his party had held intensive discussions with executives from the Democratic Party, PAN, the PKB and the United Development Party (PPP) although none had yet made a decision.
PAN executive Tjatur Sapto Edy signaled that his party had excluded Golkar from its priority list of possible candidates for coalition members,
'PAN would prefer to collaborate with the PDI-P or Gerindra.'
Tjatur said that PAN, which garnered around 7.5 percent of the vote, would also endorse the nomination of chairman Hatta Rajasa ' as the vice presidential candidate.
The General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official results of the legislative election in May.
