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Discourse: '€˜This change is the most important change of the last century'€™

China’s rise as a regional power has been frequently debated and discussed

The Jakarta Post
Thu, April 17, 2014

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Discourse: '€˜This change is the most important change of the last century'€™

C

em>China'€™s rise as a regional power has been frequently debated and discussed. Within Southeast Asia there are many perceptions of China as it engages and convinces the world of its '€œpeaceful rise'€. The Jakarta Post on Tuesday spoke with Ambassador Wu Jianmin, the vice chair of the China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy, who is part of the delegation from the respected think tank, about the expansion of these issues and the changing geopolitics of the region.

Question: There have been numerous cooperative engagements between China and ASEAN, but it seems that there is still apprehension regarding China'€™s rise. Why do such perceptions persist?

Answer: When a region undergoes tremendous change, the center of gravity shifts in the process, and this process is far from over. This change is the most important change in the last century, [which was] a Western dominated century.

I think China is rising simultaneously with ASEAN countries. If you look at Asia, it has experienced five waves of rising economic power both with specific countries and groups of countries since the Second World War. The first wave was Japan in 1950s; then the '€˜four tigers'€™ [Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea], then ASEAN; the fourth wave was China when we started a new orientation in 1978. The fifth wave is India. India started economic reform in 1991.

So this change is unprecedented. Change generates apprehension, uncertainty, even fear.

So I think the first reason is because we changed.

A second reason would be the influence of outside powers. I mean the US. The US started what they called a '€˜pivot'€™ to Asia strategy. What is this strategy? America has explained it several times. If you compare the first version and the current version, they are not the same thing. So, this is also a reason for some reflection and some apprehension.

Third is the speed, the scope and the scale of the China'€™s rise. It'€™s something people have never seen throughout history, it'€™s unprecedented.

As an intellectual do you subscribe to the historical theory that when a status quo power is waning and a new one emerging, it is rare that the transition is smooth or peaceful, and that there is always conflict?

In June last year in California, President Xi Jinping met with President Barack Obama. The two leaders agreed to a new model of power relationship. What'€™s new? Because in
the past the rising power and the established power were bound to engage in confrontation, in conflict, even in war.

The world has changed. And to sum up this change, scholars point out that the world has moved from MAD to MED [Mutually Assured Destruction to Mutual Economic Dependence]. With this change, the rules of the game have changed from zero-sum game to positive sum. This is a huge change.

China decided to set up its modernization programs. And how do we plan to achieve this goal? We need to do two things: Open up and reform.

Why open up? China used to be a leading power for many centuries. So why then in modern times does China lag far behind industrialized countries? We have come to the conclusion that this was due to self-exclusion. The only way to catch up is to open up to the outside world.

Why reform? Because we understand globalization is irreversible whether you like it or not. So reform means we Chinese must change in order to embrace globalization.

But could Beijing have conducted itself better in the area of diplomacy and avoid sending mixed signals that could be misread by its neighbors?

As I said earlier the world is changing, There are two ways of thinking: Old Cold War thinking and the win-win thinking.

So you would expect certain missteps as a result of this evolution?

The world is in transition so we are faced with these two ways of thinking. The new way of thinking is exactly that, something new. Old thinking has been there for thousands of years. So I think as a scholar I believe that kind of thing is something unavoidable. What to do? My delegation has come here to study alongside our Indonesian friends, so we can find a way to advance our cooperation on a win-win basis.

People may have some apprehension. What can you do with apprehension? You can blame people, but that'€™s not useful. The best way to overcome this is to build specific concrete cooperation on a win-win basis. Indonesia wins, China wins, which in that context builds trust. Apprehension will only feed fear over time.

Are we doing enough to help ease potential tensions with regards to the South China Sea? What can Indonesia do to contribute even though it is not part of a claimant party?

I think Indonesia is very important member of ASEAN. You are the largest, I know with the role you play within ASEAN is very important. You are in a position to push for a good solution, a good compromise between ASEAN countries between some members of ASEAN and China. I think over time we will find a solution.

How was the delegation'€™s meeting with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and senior Indonesian officials?

I was very impressed by the meetings especially with the President. I sensed a very strong political will from Indonesia to further develop the Indonesia-China relationship.

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