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strong>April 15, p2

The people have spoken: 2014 is not the end for Islamic parties. Despite all the doom and gloom, not only did they manage to survive the 2014 legislative election, they even succeeded in grabbing more support from the country'€™s traditionally abangan (less devout) religious voters. (By Ary Hermawan, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta)

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One factor seldom discussed is the smaller number of parties in this election.

In 2009, 38 parties contested the national legislative election; but only 12 took part in 2014, including the newly formed NasDem Party.

As many as 27 parties, which collectively won over 15 percent of votes in 2009, disappeared from the ballots, offering a potential bonanza of fresh support for the surviving parties.

In 2009, 81 percent of votes went to seat-winning parties, whereas in 2014, 97 percent of votes went to seat-winning parties. This means that parties must increase their share of the vote by 1 to 2 percent just to get the same number of seats as in 2009. But only the Gerindra Party, NasDem, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) seem to have won significant new support.

The small gains of the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Hanura Party suggest that their real support levels are static. They may end up with fewer seats in the House of Representatives than in 2009, despite their higher percentage of the total vote.

The Golkar Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) declined significantly, while the Democratic Party is the big loser of the election.

A point worth adding is that '€œrefugee voters'€ from parties that disappeared from the ballot after 2009 may be even less willing than '€œloyal voters'€ to support the presidential candidates backed by the bosses of the parties they voted for.

John Hargreaves