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ver the last couple of weeks the unthinkable has happened: candidate Prabowo Subianto has managed to pull within a few percentage points of so-called people'€™s favorite, Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo, in the race to be the next president of Indonesia. Some are saying that Prabowo has the '€œbig mo'€ '€” the momentum behind the campaign that could very well sweep him into the presidency. And there is plenty of evidence to support this claim.

From the beginning, Jokowi'€™s failure to get over the line in the legislative elections shook the very foundation of his campaign narrative as a man of the people.

More recently, the usually friendly media have begun to dig around his past and policy platform a little more deeply. These challenges have been compounded by the bump Prabowo has experienced since he chose former economic minister, Hatta Rajasa, as his running mate.

A further problem for Jokowi is that his easygoing manner stands in stark contrast to the combative nature of Prabowo. The majority of people agree that Jokowi gave the more impressive and assured performances during the televised presidential debates. Unfortunately, the bar was set so high that it didn'€™t make much of a difference to his campaign.

His opponent, on the other hand, gave a tub-thumping, often nationalistic set of performances '€” a style that spoke directly to the demographics that will most likely decide this election.

What'€™s more, the Jokowi ticket'€™s strength is also its biggest weakness. The Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla duo represents the cleanest break from the political dynasties that have governed Indonesia, democratically or not, for the past 50 years.

Many people who publicly claim they want change will ultimately opt for the comfort of a familiar face when in the privacy of the voting booth.

However, a word of warning should be heeded. Momentum in elections is often confused with the normal narrowing of polls that happens in the weeks before an election. In reality, momentum is solidified in the 6 to 3 months prior an election.

It is created through the hard work of solidifying a core vote and slowly but surely picking up votes from the undecideds. Momentum is seldom about the last minutes of a campaign.

We need look no further than the US elections in 2012 for a parallel of what is taking place in Indonesia. For the majority of the election season, Obama led in the polls against Republican candidate Mitt Romney. However, in the month before the election, polls were seen to be narrowing.

Story after story trumpeting Romney'€™s momentum were published. But on election day, Obama swept the electoral college vote and won the popular vote by four percentage points. The narrowing of the polls turned out to be '€” yet again '€” just part of the natural order of an election cycle.

An important point to remember is that many analysts have to come up with a fresh take on an election every day '€” hence the obsession with often hugely non-representative polling. The narrowing of polls gives them a narrative up until the last vote has been cast. The problem is that most elections are won long before polling day, but that does not make for a very interesting story.

Prabowo could well win. His campaign machine is slicker and better funded and he has a style that plays well to people with limited education. His campaign speaks in the language of nationalist economics '€” a smart strategy given that most elections are won on promises of more money in your pocket and the possibility of a better job.

Yet mistaking the fact that the candidates are polling closely as a true indication of the likely outcome in July ignores the simple facts of elections: Polls will always get tighter, it is what'€™s behind the numbers that count.

The writer is an Asia-Pacific focused public affairs consultant and former election strategist (United Kingdom)