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Comments on other issues: Rupiah could hit 13,000 in 2015
Dec
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ec. 8, p1
The recent broad-based fall in Asian currencies signals a challenging outlook for the rupiah in 2015, giving a short illustration of a potential scenario that could play out when the US central bank moves to tighten its monetary policy next year.
Investment banks from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs to BNP Paribas have warned their clients to prepare for the rupiah's depreciation to 13,000 per US dollar next year, as the US Federal Reserve's move to hike its interest rates would trigger capital outflows in the region, weakening the Indonesian currency.
Your comments:
Bring back president BJ Habibie. During his short presidency, the rupiah strengthened from Rp 15,000 to around Rp 7,500 against the greenback. Where are those foreign bankers/analysts who 'predicted' that the rupiah would strengthen to around Rp 10,000 per US dollar?
Maximus
During the election campaign, Jokowi said that if he became president, the rupiah would be under 10,000 per US dollar.
Tallang Sura
Why is 13,000 such a problem? It should make Indonesian exports more attractive and improve Indonesia's balance of payments.
A low rupiah will also make Indonesia more attractive as a tourist destination. Cheap, cheerful beach holidays are always popular.
The 13,000 level will only hurt fat cats, who have borrowed huge amounts of money abroad to
prop up their tottering business empires.
Property speculators might also be in trouble if it falls too far.
But why should ordinary people care about that?
Lasem Benny
It would work if our growth was driven by exports, as was China's case before 2009.
But consumption is the primary engine of our growth and both our balance of payments and balance of trade are close to even. So above all, we need currency stability.
Yes, in theory we could switch to exporting more, but our economy is not nimble enough to make the shift that quickly.
Starting an export business under the current regulatory regime will take months, if not years.
Nguk Zilla
The only aspect to watch is offshore loans. So fuel price increases, state enterprise efficiency, eradicating corruption and smart tax plans are the keys to minimizing foreign dependency.
Fussion B
