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Blueprint needed for foreign policy on Latin America

Last December the Foreign Ministry stated that “South America and the Caribbean region would be a business target for Indonesian entrepreneurs in 2015”

Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Sun, January 25, 2015

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Blueprint needed for foreign policy on Latin America

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ast December the Foreign Ministry stated that '€œSouth America and the Caribbean region would be a business target for Indonesian entrepreneurs in 2015'€. How feasible is that? The administration of President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo has reiterated the importance of fostering economic diplomacy; Indonesian missions abroad are to make commercial activities reach around 80-90 percent of diplomatic activities. Over the years, Indonesian trade has steadily increased particularly with its traditional partners, such as China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN nations as a whole.

Yet Indonesia'€™s diplomatic relations with the Latin American region in fact began in the 1950s. First president Sukarno officially traveled to meet his Latin American friends as part of South-South solidarity during the decolonization period. But unfortunately, this positive political momentum was not followed by economic cooperation. For the fledgling republic this was understandable, particularly at the height of the Cold War.

Under his successor Soeharto, Indonesian relations with the Latin American region were largely limited to maintaining active links with an alternative market to diversify Indonesian exports and market portfolios. But in the early and mid-1990s, there was some interest in building economic relations with Latin America, but initiatives mostly came from Indonesia'€™s Latin American counterparts.

For instance, Chile and Argentina with their '€œlook East'€ foreign policy agenda, considered Asia-Pacific as a dynamic and potential economic region. The Chilean and Argentinian presidents officially visited Indonesia, in 1994 and 1996 respectively, particularly within the framework of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, along with their business delegates.

This momentum was disrupted by the Asian financial and economic crisis; total trade declined, including with many of Indonesia'€™s Latin American counterparts. Worse, economic crises affected Latin American countries, such as Mexico in 1994. Therefore, at least around the late 1990s until the early 2000s, Indonesia-Latin America bilateral economic relations were at their lowest point.

The positive momentum came when the 2008 global financial crisis struck the US economy and the ensuing recession and debt crisis in many European economies led many developing countries including Indonesia and Latin American countries to find new alternative markets. Latin American countries viewed Indonesia as a potential market with an increasing number of middle-income groups.

Meanwhile for Indonesia, the Latin American region should also be viewed as a big potential market to be explored further. Countries, such as Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, are members of the G-20. Others like Chile, Uruguay, Panama, Costa Rica, Colombia and Peru have different features of economic potentialities, such as high income per capita, and are potential hubs for Indonesian commodities.

Yet initiatives have still come largely from Latin American counterparts. For instance, the current Indonesia-Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA) in which the first Trade in Goods (TIGs) talks were held in May 2014 was in fact a very successful Chilean diplomatic persuasion agenda.

Chile, which has the largest network of free trade agreements in the world with around 26 trade agreements in force and/or signed with 61 countries, was able to bring Indonesia the negotiation rounds in which the Indonesian side lacked strong and comprehensive guided direction. I held a mini free-trade simulation on the issue, which overall showed a trade pattern of '€œmore wine for coal and natural rubber'€ between the two countries.

Indonesian consumers would benefit from relatively cheaper wines from Chile, while Indonesia would help meet Chile'€™s demand for energy by exporting coal and natural rubber. Everyone can conclude roughly who gains and who loses from realizing this IC-CEPA. Not to mention the increasing number of non-tariff barriers imposed on many Latin American countries, which directly and indirectly impact Indonesian export commodities in Latin America.

A blueprint for Indonesian foreign policy toward the Latin American region is needed. Scholars cite China'€™s clear foreign policy toward the Latin American region which is motivated by its search for a source of primary products, a market for Chinese goods, diplomatic efforts in isolating Taiwan, as well as challenging and competing with the US.

As a first measure, Indonesia should reappoint a special envoy for the Latin American region, which temporarily existed under former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Further, we should open direct flights particularly to several key partners in the Latin American region to facilitate people-to-people contact.

Also, a larger budget is particularly needed for Indonesian missions to conduct economic diplomacy activities in the Latin American region. Last but not least, Indonesia should assign permanent observers in several important regional organizations, such as, among others, the Pacific Alliance, Mercosur and the Caribbean Community.

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The writer is a Fulbright Senior Research Program 2014/15 awardee and a visiting scholar at Pomona College.

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