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View Point: Will Cabinet shake-up restore stability?

Talk of an upcoming Cabinet reshuffle has been rife, although President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has not made it clear that he does intend to shake up his 34-strong team

Dwi Atmanta (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Sun, May 24, 2015

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View Point: Will Cabinet shake-up restore stability?

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alk of an upcoming Cabinet reshuffle has been rife, although President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo has not made it clear that he does intend to shake up his 34-strong team. Pressure has indeed been mounting on the President to replace underperforming ministers, let alone those who have actually become part of the problems the government is struggling to cope with.

A reshuffle is thus a matter of management, which requires the President as the chief executive officer to put the right persons in the right places, or else the common goals '€” his vision and mission '€” will remain out of reach.

A Cabinet reshuffle is also a necessity, if not pressing, given the rising public dissatisfaction with the government'€™s performance as reflected in a number of surveys conducted to assess the first half of the Jokowi administration.

Indobarometer'€™s survey, for example, found that only 57.5 percent of respondents were content with the Jokowi government'€™s performance in the first six months, far lower than the public acceptance rate of the previous government in the same period. Most of the complaints concerned price hikes of basic commodities, limited job creation and increasing poverty rates.

The most recent survey by pollster the Pol-Tracking Institute revealed that 48.5 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the government'€™s performance, and only 44 percent of them said they were satisfied. Economic performance was the main source of disenchantment, with only 28.7 percent feeling satisfied with the government'€™s achievements.

Cabinet Secretary Andi Widjajanto says the discussion of a reshuffle has been restricted to President Jokowi and Vice President Jusuf Kalla so far, although deputy to presidential chief of staff Eko Sulistyo has given a hint that the reshuffle will focus on the economic team.

Critics have lashed out at Jokowi'€™s economic ministers for their failure to find a formula to cope with the ongoing crisis and increasing commodity prices. Statistics confirm the sub-par performance of the Indonesian economy.

Since the fall of the New Order, no matter who the president is, Indonesian Cabinets have always been made up of coalitions of parties, reminiscent of a parliamentary system of government.

Ministerial seats are distributed among political parties that have joined forces to win the presidential election, plus one or two other pragmatic parties that prefer not to sit out the five-year political cycle in opposition.

Then president Abdurrahman '€œGus Dur'€ Wahid undertook four Cabinet reshuffles within two years of his administration, the latest being made less than two weeks prior to his impeachment in July 2001. His successor president Megawati Soekarnoputri never intended to reshuffle her Cabinet, but three of her ministers '€” Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Jusuf Kalla and Agum Gumelar '€” quit in the final year of their term, only to challenge her in the presidential election and another one '€” Hatta Rajasa '€” resigned to take up a legislative post.

President Yudhoyono changed his Cabinet lineup five times during his two terms in office, for various reasons. The first reshuffle, which he announced 14 months after his inauguration as president in October 2004, for example, aimed to replace underperforming ministers.

The most controversial reshuffle, however, came in May 2010, after his finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati resigned to pursue a career at the World Bank. Sri Mulyani'€™s departure capped a political crisis plaguing the Yudhoyono administration as a result of the Century Bank bailout that pitted him against his own allies, the Golkar Party and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

As a novice in national politics, Jokowi cannot and does not have to match Gus Dur, Megawati and Yudhoyono in negotiating either a formation or reshuffle of the Cabinet. Unlike his predecessors, who each held the most powerful post in their respective parties, Jokowi faces the reality that he has to take into consideration the interests of political parties that have made him President.

The presidency, in short, does not give Jokowi a free hand to pick his ministers as he sees fit despite the Constitution, which clearly says the prerogative to name or dismiss Cabinet ministers belongs to him. As happened in the formation of his Cabinet last October, which disappointed many, any reshuffle is unlikely to live up to the public'€™s expectations, but will rather suit his coalition'€™s interests.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), or more precisely its chairwoman Megawati, has gained the upper hand over Jokowi particularly after its recent congress in Bali, which some close confidants of Megawati described as the final warning for Jokowi to never again defy the party line.

Megawati has reportedly prepared several party members to take over from ministers to whom Jokowi will show the door. Previously PDI-P politicians had accused three Cabinet members of attempting to alienate Jokowi from the party.

To restore his ties with the PDI-P, Jokowi will heed Megawati'€™s wishes, especially because the party is underrepresented in the Cabinet despite the fact that it is '€œthe majority shareholder'€ in Jokowi'€™s successful presidential campaign. For Jokowi the PDI-P will remain the backbone of political support that he needs to realize his campaign platform and eventually his bid for reelection in 2019.

There is ample room, however, for Jokowi to maneuver through the Cabinet reshuffle. Jokowi has taken various measures to win the hearts of the opposition Red-and-White Coalition, which controls the House of Representatives, the latest being his nod to the House'€™s landmark Square of Democracy project, and other construction projects inside the House compound.

Realpolitik will force Jokowi to seek compromises with both friends and foes for the sake of stability. It will come as no surprise if he appoints a minister or two from the opposition camp, although it will breach his own promise to build a government upon a slim coalition.

The public knew that Jokowi was still learning the ropes last October. When he reshuffles his Cabinet they will see how quickly he has learned.

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The author is a staff writer at The Jakarta Post.

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