T

he West Sumatra chapter of the Indonesian Geologists Association (IAGI) has warned of a serious threat of a massive earthquake with the potential to cause severe damage and loss of life in the province.

The potential quake is located on two segments of the Sumatra Fault, also known as the Semangko fault.

West Sumatra IAGI head Ade Edward said the government had been preoccupied with mitigation of the off-coast tectonic quake threat in Mentawai Islands, which has the potential to trigger a tsunami that would hit Padang city, but had ignored the threat from the two segments on the mainland. '€œThis is also very serious and could endanger thousands of lives. There have been virtually no preparations and the West Sumatra Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD) and National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) should pay attention to this,'€ Ade said on Friday.

The Sumatran Fault, which runs the length of Sumatra from Aceh in the north to Lampung in the south, is made up of 19 segments, four of which are located in West Sumatra.

The four are the Sumpur segment in Pasaman regency, Sianok in Bukittinggi, Sumani in Lake Singkarak and Solok city and Suliti in Solok and South Solok regencies.

Each of the segments has the potential to trigger a 7-magnitude quake at a cycle of between 40 and 70 years.

The Sianok and Sumani segments triggered a massive quake in 2007 that killed 52 people, having lain inactive for 81 years. The next cycle for the two segments, Ade said, was still a long way off.

'€œHowever, the last massive quake in the Sukiti segment was in 1943, or 72 years ago, and the Sumpur segment has been inactive for a longer period, more than 150 years. The quakes could happen anytime now,'€ said Ade.

The Suliti segment, Ade added, moved by 25 mm annually and had depressed by 1.8 meters over the past 72 years; the depression could release and cause a quake. He cited the quake at the Sianok and Sumani segments, which shifted 22 mm annually and eventually shifted the earth between 45 cm and 60 cm during the 2007 earthquake.

The worrying aspect, according to Ade, is that both faultlines stretch about 90 km below densely populated areas, including regency capitals. In Pasaman regency, for example, the segment is located in Lubuk Sikaping and Bonjol and in South Solok it passes through Muara Labuh, Surian and Alahan Panjang.

'€œThe inter-province national road is also located along the faultline as well as densely-populated areas,'€ he said.

As part of anticipatory measures, Ade has urged the government to immediately initiate a mitigation program for both segments, ban construction in danger zones and prepare emergency response measures.

South Solok BPBD head Editorial said no special program to anticipate quake threats at the Suliti segment was yet available, apart from public campaigning from disaster-awareness groups in the villages during drills. He also called on residents to build quake-proof and strong houses.

'€œWe can no longer urge people to reinforce old homes and temporary buildings as it'€™s beyond our reach. We can only remind them to build new permanent buildings that are strong, especially multi-story buildings,'€ Editorial told The Jakarta Post.