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Economists cast doubt on govt'€™s growth forecast

Economists from Goldman Sachs to JPMorgan Chase have revised down their growth outlooks for Indonesia as foreign investors’ confidence in President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo begins to wane

Satria Sambijantoro (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Thu, June 11, 2015

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Economists cast doubt on govt'€™s growth forecast

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conomists from Goldman Sachs to JPMorgan Chase have revised down their growth outlooks for Indonesia as foreign investors'€™ confidence in President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo begins to wane.

This week, Goldman Sachs downgraded its 2015 outlook for Indonesia from 5.3 percent to 4.9 percent, which would be the first time since the last global financial crisis that the country'€™s annual economic expansion would fall below 5 percent.

Previously, Credit Suisse trimmed its growth outlook for Indonesia from 5.1 percent to 4.8 percent, while Nomura Holdings revised it from 5.2 percent to 4.8 percent.

'€œThis protracted slowdown was driven, in our view, by a lack of reform progress that is dimming investment prospects, and more recently, was exacerbated by headwinds from low commodity prices and tight policies,'€ analysts from Nomura Holdings wrote in a research note.

Among the most bearish economists on Indonesian growth were those from JPMorgan Chase, who slashed the country'€™s economic expansion forecast this year from 5.3 percent to 4.4 percent.

JPMorgan Chase economist Sin Beng Ong argued that there would be a dilemma for Indonesian policymakers as the economy, already suffering from the slowdown, would face a combination of trade shock and a potential tightening in external financing conditions.

'€œThe broader political economic question then is if the government is unwilling to accept slower growth and also concurrently implement tough reforms, whether there would be a greater push for short-term policy easing,'€ he commented.

'€œThough Indonesia is not yet in a crisis, the unfolding global headwinds of potentially higher global interest rates and weakening commodity prices require a similar political single-mindedness.'€

Investors have pinned high expectations on Jokowi fulfilling his campaign promises of spurring growth to 7 percent, with the President arguing that such a target was achievable as he pledged to cut bureaucratic red tape and build massive growth-generating infrastructure projects.

Jokowi'€™s election to office last year was greeted with a 22 percent surge in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) throughout 2014.

However, recent developments in the domestic economy were not encouraging, as growth fell to a six-year low level of 4.7 percent in the first quarter as sluggish government spending and moderating investments served as a drag on growth.

Various indicators show that second quarter growth might stay subdued, with any drastic pick-up looking unlikely. Cement sales, an indicator of construction projects and economic growth, posted another decline in May as they dropped 7.9 percent year-on-year during the month, latest association data show.

The persistent slowdown has reduced investors'€™ confidence in Jokowi, with the Indonesian benchmark stock index already becoming the region'€™s worst performer as it fell by 5.6 percent year-to-date to close at 4,933.5 on Wednesday.

'€œFrom our conversations with a fairly wide range of businesspeople operating in Indonesia, our sense is that the mood is currently extremely gloomy, and the polar opposite of the optimism that prevailed six months ago following Jokowi'€™s election,'€ analysts from Macquarie Group wrote in a research note.

'€œThe economy is slowing more rapidly than is understood,'€ they noted.

In a hearing this week, the House of Representatives Commission XI overseeing economy lambasted the government and Bank Indonesia (BI) for coming up with unrealistic macroeconomic assumptions that lawmakers argued were not seen as credible among investors.

Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said the economy could still grow in the range of between 5.4 percent and 5.8 percent next year, accelerating from an estimated 5.7 percent this year as assumed in the revised 2015 state budget.

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