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Arms modernization and military transformation in Indonesia
The recent crash of an Air Force C-130B airlifter was the latest in a long line of fatal accidents involving the countryâs military hardware
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he recent crash of an Air Force C-130B airlifter was the latest in a long line of fatal accidents involving the country's military hardware. Between 2006 and 2015, there were a total of 18 accidents or an average of two incidents per year. These have caused huge material losses and most importantly, claimed the lives of well-trained military personnel.
This awful situation is dangerous to Indonesia's security and stability. If the trend continues, it is likely to further degrade troops' morale and weaken the military's deterrence effect in key flashpoints and border areas ' particularly in the Ambalat and Natuna seas.
Based on the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) database per December 2014, the Indonesian Military (TNI) operates a total of 160 variants of weapons systems consisting of 64 land systems, 56 naval weapon systems and 40 types of military aircraft. There are, at least, two major issues relating to the current development of the TNI's arsenal.
First, a close examination of their service records shows that overall 52 percent of TNI equipment has been operated for over three decades. While only 38 percent of the Air Force's arsenal is over 30 years old, the Navy and Army, with respectively 59 and 54 percent, are at the top ranks in aging arsenals. Indonesia's Marine Corps, for instance, still relies on a fleet of outdated PT-76 tanks for amphibious operations.
However, the fact that most of the existing armaments are aging does not instantly disqualify their use in future military operations. There are many operational factors that can affect the serviceability of weapons systems, including routine maintenance and overhaul, as well as the availability of spare parts and local infrastructure.
Another crucial factor is the relevance of the existing weapons technologies with the military's operational requirements. In theory, the deployment of military units depends on the nature of threat, terrain and weather conditions, as well as mission objective. According to Indonesia's recent defense guidelines, the prospect of high-intensity conflict remains low in Southeast Asia in the near term. With that assessment and due to limited funding for new procurement, the TNI seeks to refurbish and upgrade the existing military systems it considers relevant for future operations, such as modified AMX-13 tanks, Ahmad Yani-class frigates and C-130H transport planes.
Second, a study on recent defense procurements highlights the slow pace of Indonesia's military modernization. In the last 15 years, despite the acquisition of larger sealift vessels, the Navy could only procure seven ocean-going warships. Despite its ambition to operate up to 10 jetfighter squadrons, the Air Force had to take a long process to complete its Su-27/30 fleet and replace aging F-5 aircraft.
This modest progress is still inadequate to ensure Indonesia's sovereignty over its vast archipelagic territory. As with the practice in many countries, the Defense Ministry adopts 'threat-based' and 'capability-based' defense planning. It has comprehensively outlined key military capabilities to anticipate and tackle a spectrum of actual and potential threats at perceived flashpoints.
Nevertheless, funding is the major obstacle slowing the pace of arms modernization in the TNI. All the time, Indonesian policymakers struggle to weigh a proper balance between 'guns versus butter' in defense budgeting. Very often, the country's defense planners have to adjust the existing procurement plans according to available financial resources.
Moreover, given the budget constraint, Indonesia has been relying on foreign loans for major defense procurements. Between 2009 and 2014, about 33 percent of the country's arms imports were funded under the export credit agreement provided by the Russian government. While necessary, the funding mechanism as such entails complex bureaucratic red tape. This often prolongs the process of arms procurement and delivery, as well as complicating any negotiations regarding the transfer of technology to indigenous strategic industries.
Over the past 10 years, the Indonesian government has also tended to overvalue the 'million friends, zero enemy' doctrine. This mindset further complicates strategic policymaking as the decisions on defense procurement have to take into account the impact of new weapons systems on arms dynamics and regional stability in Southeast Asia. In theory, the acquisition of any new arms is potentially disruptive to the balance of military power in the region. However, identifying the difference between defensive and offensive arsenals is increasingly difficult practice today.
With the increasing problems in the country's maritime domain, both Indonesian policymakers and House of Representatives members have no option but modernize the military's weapon systems. President Joko Widodo's maritime aspiration is a powerful political commitment to accelerate that effort. Raising Indonesia's defense budget up to 1.5 percent of GDP is essential to cover the costs of the TNI's arms maintenance and procurement programs.
Equally important is the 'mindset revolution' (revolusi mental) in Indonesia's defense planning. During his interview at the House of Representatives last week, TNI chief candidate Gen. Gatot Nurmantyo specifically underlined that the increasingly complex strategic environment requires the development of capable air and naval power. This is certainly a remarkable statement for an army officer, suggesting greater internal cohesion and aspiration for interoperability among the armed services.
Civilian leadership must also undertake similar mindset change. Rather than perceiving it as routine spending, both executive and legislative officials must ponder weapons procurement as a long-term investment to safeguard the country's huge economic interests and overall development. This way, military transformation will eventually take place in Indonesia.
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The writer is defense expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta.
