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Jakarta Post

Consumer optimism declines in Q3

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Ayomi Amindoni (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Wed, November 4, 2015

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Consumer optimism declines in Q3 Illustration.(Kompas/Lucky Pransiska) (Kompas/Lucky Pransiska)

Illustration. (Kompas/Lucky Pransiska)

A survey from global market researcher Nielsen shows that the Indonesian consumer confidence index has continued to decline, going down four points, to 116, in the third quarter of 2015. The index stood at 120 in the previous quarter and 123 in the first.

Nielsen Indonesia managing director Agus Nurudin said Indonesia's economic uncertainty, the weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar and increases in job layoffs were the main contributors to the decline in consumer confidence.

"It could be said that the country's economic condition has suffered from uncertainty over the last six months. The strengthening of the US dollar and massive layoffs have impacted our consumer confidence," said Agus in Jakarta on Wednesday.

According to the survey, Indonesia's economy remains consumers' top concern, with 46 percent of respondents listing it as such, 9 percent more than in the previous quarter. Apart from the economy, Indonesian consumers are also concerned about work-life balance, which was a top concern for 17 percent of those surveyed, and the welfare and happiness of parents, a top concern for 15 percent.

"The hot topic is currency, which has kept everyone on edge, wondering whether Indonesia's economy will get worse," he said. The rupiah, he mentioned as an example, fell to Rp 14.700 per US dollar in the July-September quarter.

Nielsen'€™s consumer confidence index in the third quarter of 2015 '€“ which measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions '€“ showed that Indonesia's optimism regarding future employment continued to decline, down to 64 percent, from 68 percent in the second quarter and 75 percent in the first.

Optimism around future personal finances also dropped significantly, from 84 percent in this year'€™s first quarter, to 80 percent in the second and 64 in the third.

"[The number of] Indonesian online consumers who believe that the state of their personal finances will improve to '€œgood'€ or '€œexcellent'€ over the next 12 months is also becoming fewer," Agus explained.

Consumers'€™ outlook on spending, he continued, was also affected. In the third quarter Indonesia'€™s spending-outlook index stood at 49, down from 53 in the previous quarter and 56 in the first.

"Most Indonesian online consumers are still holding back on purchasing new technology and new clothes to save money," Agus said.

Although suffering a consumer-confidence decline, Agus continued, Indonesia is still among the top ten most confident countries globally, at fourth position, along with three other Southeast Asia countries '€“ the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

In the third quarter, global consumer confidence increased three index points to 99, the highest level since 2006. Agus noted that the confidence index had increased in 29 out of the 61 markets surveyed. "Economic improvement in the US and Europe drove this confidence," he said.

However, fears of a recession in Asia worsened by more than 9 percentage points in Hongkong, Malaysia, Taiwan and Indonesia. Meanwhile, the three countries with the highest fears of a recession are South Korea, with 89 percent concerned, Malaysia, with 89 percent also, and Taiwan, with 88 percent concerned.

"In Malaysia, a currency devaluation of at least 25 percent has potentially impacted on perceptions of the country'€™s economic strength. Political stability is now [Malaysia'€™s] second-highest concern, as recent high-profile demonstrations and political headlines dominate the media," Agus said.

Nielsen surveyed more than 30,000 people with internet access across 61 countries. (ebf)(+)

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