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Jakarta Post

President begins to see risks in China’s high-speed train

Exactly a year ago, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo donned his helmet for the ground-breaking ceremony of what was supposed to be the country’s first high-speed railway project

Farida Susanty and Fedina S. Sundaryani (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Thu, July 27, 2017

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President begins to see risks in China’s high-speed train

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xactly a year ago, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo donned his helmet for the ground-breaking ceremony of what was supposed to be the country’s first high-speed railway project.

Connecting Jakarta and the West Java capital Bandung, the US$5.1 billion project was the flagship project between China and Indonesia, won by the world’s second-biggest economy after it whisked the project away from its rival Japan.

However, with a seemingly never-ending flow of problems plaguing the project, Jokowi has finally begun to question its feasibility and has floated the idea of China shouldering greater risk.

During a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday to discuss the project, all hell broke lose over the potential risks Indonesia could face if there was no immediate amendment to the project preparations. The risks have sparked talk of reducing Indonesia’s participation in the project. Currently, Indonesian and Chinese companies have formed a consortium called Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) in which Indonesia has 60 percent participating interest while China has 40 percent.

“The President asked: Does it have to be like this? Why can’t Indonesia just have a 10 percent interest with China 90 percent to reduce the risk?” Public Works and Public Housing Minister Basuki Hadimuljono, who attended the Cabinet meeting, said on Wednesday.

Aside from protracted land-acquisition problems, the meeting also revealed cash-flow risks once the railway is operational and technical problems that could potentially cause a huge budget overrun.

Not only has Jokowi demanded a more detailed breakdown of the business model and the feasibility of the project, he has assigned his most trusted official, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan, to work with State Enterprises Minister Rini Soemarno, who initiated and led the project, to deal with the matter.

Basuki said the President was worried about the uncertainty in the revenue stream once the project became operational in 2020.

“The revenue stream, they say, will be from the TOD [transit-oriented development]. The KCIC feasibility study showed that it would need four years to achieve break-even from the TOD revenues, but apparently it will take 10 to 15 years for this,” said Basuki.

“The President requested a recalculation,” he said.

Aside from tickets and advertising, revenue from the TOD is expected to have a major role in generating a healthy cash flow for KCIC. The TOD would include property and commercial projects near the train stations.

The 142.3-kilometer railway will have four stations between Jakarta and Bandung; Halim, Karawang, Walini and Tegalluar.

It was initially estimated to cost $5.1 billion, with 70 percent of the total cost being covered by loans from China Development Bank (CDB).

However, the cost has already soared to $5.9 billion as previously explained by Minister Rini, and will have the potential to increase by another 30 percent as Basuki said KCIC had yet to price in technical measures to cushion the risks from earthquakes.

The railway tracks are due to pass through four earthquake-prone areas.

“It [KCIC] has not been detailed enough in preparing for this. […] We have to be very cautious,” Basuki said.

The recent subsidence at the Cisomang Bridge on the Purbaleunyi toll road, located near the planned high-speed railway track, has cost the ministry Rp 130 billion (US$9.7 million) to fix.

KCIC has also grappled with land procurement as only 53 percent of the around 600 hectares of land needed for the project has been procured.

The company has also yet to receive a construction permit from the Air Force to have one of the stations located near the Halim Perdanakusuma airbase.

CDB refused to disburse $4.5 billion earlier this year primarily because of the land and permit problems.

Transportation Minister Budi Karya Sumadi said he had sent a letter to KCIC containing a list of proposed government amendments.

“We will see if KCIC can accept them,” he said.

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