I

t has been more than a decade since scientists warned Jakarta about the potential for a strong earthquake in the Sunda megathrust to cause significant damage to the capital. However, an earthquake in January that caused buildings in Jakarta to rock serves as a reminder that the city might not be prepared for
the worst.

Scientists have urged the central government and Jakarta, home to 800 high-rise buildings, to intensify efforts to mitigate the effects of earthquakes by inspecting buildings, allocating funds for research and opening access to data for such studies.

Danny Hilman Natawidjaja, a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said over the weekend that there were a limited number of studies on the subject, particularly as it related to megathrust earthquakes. “The government is not exactly indifferent when it hears this, but it goes into panic mode,” Danny said, adding that such a response had not translated into more funds for research.

Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) head Dwikorita Karnawati said tremors occurred but scientists did not have detailed information on their timing and strength.

She urged the government to start making a concerted effort to raise awareness on the issue and carry out routine building inspections based on the latest building code issued by the Public Works and Housing Ministry. “With good mitigation, there could be zero casualties,” she said.

Jan Sopaheluwakan, a member of the Jakarta Research Council, said a more detailed map better depicting the conditions of Jakarta’s underground soil was needed, particularly with ongoing infrastructure projects such as the MRT.

“We have many experts to do this; we only need the political will,” Jan said. Such a map, which would highlight areas prone to floods and earthquakes, would take two to three years to complete and cost less than Rp 10 billion (US$727,000), he said.

Areas prone to megathrust earthquakes and other natural disasters are highlighted in a 2017 national disaster map titled “Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa 2017” (Earthquake Source and Hazard Map 2017). Launched in September last year, it can be downloaded for free online. The BMKG advised that the map be used as a guideline when constructing new buildings.

Dwikorita said the agency, in an effort to more accurately predict tremors, was planning to cooperate with Kyushu University in Fukuoka, Japan, to conduct a seismic precursor study assessing soil conditions and ground movement.

The Sunda megathrust is a fault line that runs from southern Sumatra to the south of Java and Bali. Scientists predict that an 8.7-magnitude earthquake could occur along the fault line. Although the epicenter is 170 kilometers away from Jakarta, the effects of a such an earthquake could devastate Jakarta, the BMKG said.

Jakarta, home to some 10 million residents, saw a devastating earthquake in 1699 and scientists predict that another mega earthquake will strike. The 1699 earthquake, which is recorded to have lasted for 45 minutes and destroyed 21 houses, 29 barns and claimed at least 28 lives, was noted as the strongest earthquake Jakarta, then Batavia, has ever faced.

The prediction of an 8.7-magnitude earthquake was based on the stress the megathrust has accumulated over the past three decades, according to a study conducted by Nuraini Rahma Hanifa during her pursuit of a doctoral degree at Nagoya University in Japan.

“A megathrust earthquake is the most powerful of its kind in the world,” Nuraini, a member of the Geodesy Working Group of the National Center for Earthquake Studies, said, adding that such an earthquake could be comparable to the 2009 earthquake in Padang.

Jakarta Deputy Governor Sandiaga Uno said the administration would take the matter seriously, including by inspecting high-rise and old buildings in the capital, as well as allocating funds for research studies.