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Jokowi to get firmer grip on House
As the dust settles following the 2019 general election, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is set to have an easier start to his second term compared with when he first took office in 2014
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span>As the dust settles following the 2019 general election, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is set to have an easier start to his second term compared with when he first took office in 2014.
Quick count results say the President has secured a second term and his supporting political parties are also thought to have won more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives.
“Jokowi has enough support in the legislature to hit the ground running and immediately get to work,” Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) chief researcher Djayadi Hanan told The Jakarta Post.
According to counts conducted by eight established pollsters, the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin ticket is projected to have won the presidential election with around 54 to 55 percent of the vote against Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno’s 45 to 46 percent.
The quick counts also show that five of the parties backing Jokowi — the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Golkar Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the NasDem Party and the United Development Party (PPP) — are set to make it into the House, with a total vote share also of about 54 to 55 percent.
The PDI-P’s electoral results appear to be a little below pre-election predictions but Golkar, the NasDems and the PPP put in stronger performances while the PKB also improved on its 2014 showing.
The number of House seats allocated to each party will depend on how they did in each of the country’s 80 electoral districts, but Djayadi estimated that Jokowi’s coalition would get between 311 and 365 seats, or around 54 to 63 percent of the 575 seats available.
This is in stark contrast to the legislative support the President had when he was first sworn in on Oct. 20, 2014. His then-four-party coalition — which consisted of the PDI-P, PKB, NasDems and Hanura Party — occupied only 207 House seats, around 37 percent of the legislature, over half of which were won by the PDI-P.
Jokowi’s lack of electoral clout led to a fraught first year in office, with the former Jakarta governor forced to make deals with party leaders to consolidate power in the House.
By the end of 2015, Jokowi managed to bring Golkar, the PPP and the National Mandate Party (PAN) into his coalition, wresting control of nearly 70 percent of the House.
But the struggle continued as Golkar, which held the position of House speaker, failed to unite behind Jokowi’s agenda.
From disputes surrounding ownership of gold and copper miner PT Freeport to the deliberation of the tobacco bill, the warring House saw the speakership change hands three times in five years, the highest turnover in its history.
The post was held by three Golkar lawmakers, Setya Novanto — who served twice — Ade Komarudin and Bambang Soesatyo. Fadli Zon of the Gerindra Party also served as acting speaker twice.
The House struggle also led to low productivity with fewer than 20 bills passed every year.
“Jokowi has gone through a learning process and now knows what it takes to govern effectively,” Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) researcher Noory Okthariza told the Post.
Noory said that Jokowi’s larger margin of victory of around 10 to 11 percent, compared to the 6 percent margin in 2014, also gave the President more leverage to enact his agenda.
“Coming into his second and final term, Jokowi should also no longer carry any burden — he doesn’t have to be cautious or tread lightly to maintain his electability,” Noory said. “He can thus act more decisively and be willing to take more risks on issues such as energy subsidies.”
Djayadi agreed, adding, however, that the President should not get roped into any Cabinet appointment “drama”.
“If the President can form a strong Cabinet, and particularly a strong economic team that is not dictated by party leaders, then he will have a good foundation for the next five years,” he said.
Djayadi said that Jokowi might even be able to get the support of parties from the coalition supporting Gerindra chairman Prabowo, particularly PAN and the Democratic Party, both of which have been somewhat ambivalent in their support for the former general.
The addition of those two parties would bring the government coalition’s control of the House to around 68 percent.
“Jokowi might need another party in case one of his coalition members goes rogue on a particular policy or program,” he said.
Djayadi added that Jokowi should focus on infrastructure and human-resource development, as well as reforming the bureaucracy and corruption eradication, which have lagged somewhat in the last five years.
“If he can do well on those issues, which I think he can as he should no longer be hamstrung by political intrigue, he will be remembered as a good president,” he said.
