T

he human and economic devastation caused by the novel coronavirus is multiplying every day. The spread of the virus has vengefully demonstrated that every day we lose in fighting it increases the difficulty exponentially. A vivid illustration of this exponentially increasing costs: The United States rescue package being negotiated in the Congress increased from US$1trillion a week ago to $2trillion plus now. The Federal Reserve needed to resolve to “unlimited” quantitative easy, and even that failed to assuage the financial markets which continue to free fall.

There is nowhere to hide. Even in China, where victory has been declared over the virus, and where the markets held up remarkably well during the height of that country’s crisis, markets finally tanked to new lows in the last week as the virus literally went “viral” everywhere outside of China.

The economy is global. China might have temporarily won the fight against the virus; it cannot win against a fast-shrinking world economy.

Lengthy economy-wide shutdowns may create a second Great Depression. It is an existential threat. Economies may not be able to quickly bounce back even after the war against the virus is over, if too much of the tissues and muscle of the healthy economic body has been cut off – as China’s experience so far shows.

Therefore, in the fight against the economic crisis, it is critical that shutdowns end with a well-defined horizon. After a 3-4 week period, policymakers must encourage normal economic activity to resume. How to make this happen?

Mass antibody test is the answer. These tests would allow us not only to understand the true extent of the infection – badly needed statistics needed to understand the virus, but also crucially to identify the healthy and newly immune population that can go back to work and restart the economic engine.

We should have hope. But we must also be courageous. The virus cannot be eradicated and that should never be the goal of the shutdown. Instead, building natural defense is a better long-term strategy in the absence of effective treatment and a vaccine.

The reopening of the economy should be accompanied by other policy pillars. Bolstering defense of nursing homes and protecting the most vulnerable remains a policy priority. Making sure that the sick and those with preexisting conditions stay home is another. Their lost incomes should be backstopped by the government.

If we take this opportunity to make strategic long-term investment in infrastructure – both physical and intellectual, we will have turned a crisis into an opportunity for long term growth.