Anyone looking for a clue about the direction of Indonesia’s defense and foreign policy in the next administration would have been utterly disappointed when these issues were brought into the spotlight in Sunday’s presidential debate.

There was little in terms of substance in the third of the five debates organized by the General Elections Commission (KPU) before the Feb. 14 election. The televised event did shed light onto the characters and personalities of the candidates, but it is safe to conclude that Indonesia’s foreign and defense policies are unlikely to change very much under the next administration, regardless of who wins the race.

Prabowo Subianto, the likely winner according to most opinion surveys, had been expected to excel in the debate, given that he is a retired Army lieutenant general and has been defense minister in President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s cabinet since 2019. Foreign policy and defense are topics he should better understand compared to the other two candidates, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo.

Prabowo however failed miserably with Anies, and to a lesser degree Ganjar, during the debate. At times, the attacks he received seemed personal, as they questioned his record as defense minister. Anies, a scholar by training, and Ganjar, a seasoned politician, were far more articulate than the more senior retired general.

Surveys conducted on social media immediately after the debate showed that many people believed Ganjar came out as the best debater in this round. He was sharp and critical, yet remained courteous. Anies came second as many felt he was too aggressive, at times even cocky. But if this was a strategy, it worked, for he upset Prabowo, who looked bad and at times emotionally unstable, and was unable to answer some questions, although this was more likely caused by a lack of preparation.

The debate failed to address tough questions about Indonesia’s foreign and defense policies, including how the candidates would handle the escalating rivalry between China and the United States, the conflict in the South China Sea or Indonesia’s military capabilities in the event of a war or a foreign aggression, which no longer can be dismissed under the rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

Candidates addressed the plan to upgrade the military weaponry under the 15-year Minimum Essential Force (MEF) program which ends this year. This program requires Indonesia to spend billions of dollars, but budget constraints forced the Jokowi administration to withhold spending on defense and the program will barely reach 70 percent of the target when it ends this year.

Instead of addressing how candidates would overcome Indonesia’s defense vulnerability, candidates used the MEF to gain popular support.

What’s more

Anies talked about the need to spend more money on the welfare of soldiers and their housing needs, instead of spending more on weapons. Ganjar talked about not taking any more foreign loans in procuring weapons to ensure Indonesia’s sovereignty, and encouraged focusing more on building the national defense industry. Prabowo blamed the finance minister for not giving him more money to buy the weapons. No one addressed the fact that Indonesia’s defense capabilities have been severely compromised.

Ganjar promised to raise defense spending to between 1 and 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and Anies to 1.5 percent, from the current 0.7 percent, but neither explained how they would do that given the fierce competition from other sectors of the economy. All of Indonesia’s Southeast Asian neighbors already spend far more on defense as a share of GDP.

Anies made a personal attack against Prabowo when he said most soldiers still have no houses while the defense minister personally owns more than 340,000 hectares of land. Upset at this claim, Prabowo interrupted Anies and was then told off by the moderators.

There was not much discussed regarding the direction of Indonesia’s foreign policy. Anies promised to elevate cultural and art diplomacy and stressed the need for an Indonesian president to be more active, particularly in attending summits and their follow-ups.

Ganjar, like Jokowi, insisted that diplomacy is mostly about economics, and that diplomats must do their part to promote trade and investment. He talked about revitalizing ASEAN, saying the consensus-based decision-making process must be reviewed for ASEAN to move faster.

Prabowo was more rhetorical in his remarks about Indonesia being a great nation, but did not give much more about his foreign policy intentions. As defense minister for the last four years, he at times departed from the official foreign policy lines, including on the Ukraine war and on the US-China rivalry, but these did not come out in the debate.

Prabowo may have lost the debate, but his team and army of supporters within hours turned to social media to launch a counterattack, criticizing Anies in particular for making a personal attack and accusing him of being unethical and of fabricating data.

Two days later, at a campaign rally, Prabowo called Anies an “idiot” and “ungrateful”. President Jokowi, when asked by reporters, said the debate had veered off into a personal battle instead of discussing policies. The president has openly endorsed the candidacy of Prabowo, whose running mate is his own son, 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

There are two more rounds of KPU debates before the election. On Jan. 21, the vice presidential candidates will discuss sustainable development, natural resources, the environment, energy, food, land, agriculture and indigenous people and villages. The final debate on Feb. 4 will pit the presidential candidates to discuss social welfare, culture, education, information technology, health, labor, human resources and inclusivity.

The debates have become a permanent feature of general elections, although there are questions about their effectiveness in swaying voters, with surveys suggesting that the majority have already made their minds up about who to vote for. In a closely contested election, those who are persuaded by the debates could make the difference between winning and losing. In 2014, Jokowi beat Prabowo by a five-percent margin after outperforming him in the debate.

What we’ve heard

Sources within Prabowo's campaign team said that their presidential candidate was equipped with data and keywords on various defense issues. However, Prabowo often deviated from the guidance provided by the team, focusing on macro concepts such as nationalism, national sovereignty, and the welfare of the people.

Two sources within Prabowo's team mentioned that the defense minister was disappointed with the debate narrative, especially from Anies. Prabowo deemed Anies had attacked him personally rather than focusing on the substance of defense issues. "Prabowo was upset because he helped Anies win the 2017 Jakarta election," said a high-ranking official from the Prabowo National Campaign Team (TKN).

The internal Prabowo-Gibran team monitored public sentiment during the debate, with measurements assisted by one of the affiliated institutions of the supporting party. The result showed that the Gerindra chairman received positive sentiment from respondents when discussing the opening segment about the country's goal of protecting the Indonesian people, as outlined in the 1945 Constitution.

One source in the Prabowo campaign team mentioned that the debate's outcome did not significantly impact the candidates' electability. "If there is any decrease or increase, it would be around a maximum of 3 percent," the source said.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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