Even though the general election is still two years out, the race to find strong contenders is heating up as coalition building continues. Striving not to be beaten in nominating the best presidential and vice presidential hopefuls, the “headless” KIB coalition has made several advances.

Most recently, National Mandate Party (PAN) deputy chair and incumbent Bogor Mayor Bima Arya spoke candidly about endorsing Ridwan as Ganjar’s potential running mate, having signaled that both names were under consideration by his party’s local branch.

“[Ridwan’s] family comes from a pesantren [Islamic boarding school] background; he is close to them. Meanwhile, Ganjar is a national activist. They are different but complement one another,” Bima said last week.

But the proposal has not completely won over PAN’s fellow coalition partners. As the second-largest political party by legislative seats, the nationalist Golkar Party formed the KIB with Islamic parties PAN and the United Development Party (PPP) in the hope of securing enough seats to nominate their own presidential and vice presidential candidate pair. However, the coalition’s preferred choices have lacked the public appeal to match the frontrunners.

Bima has also floated the idea of the KIB forging an alliance with the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) if it nominates Ganjar.

“The options are still plentiful for the road ahead. The PDI-P might still nominate Ganjar and we could join with them in the hope that his running mate will represent the KIB,” Bima said in Surakarta, Central Java, on Oct. 28.

He went on to say that Ganjar and Ridwan should keep their options and their lines of communication open, not only with the PDI-P but also with other parties in the KIB.

PDI-P member Ganjar may not be the first choice of party chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is likely to give the presidential ticket to her daughter Puan Maharani, currently the speaker of the House of Representatives.

But the odds are still stacked against Puan, considering the massive popularity that both Ridwan and Ganjar enjoy.

A survey by the research arm of Kompas, conducted between Sept. 24 and Oct. 17, found that Ridwan’s electability had improved to 8.5 percent from the 3.4 percent in a similar June poll. The West Java governor, who is widely known for his lighthearted online persona, still trails behind Ganjar in the survey for the most electable presidential candidate. Ganjar leads with 23.2 percent. As a potential vice presidential candidate, however, Ridwan is the preferred choice for respondents.

Both men have recently expressed some degree of preparedness to enter the 2024 race, after several local branches of at least two KIB coalition parties lent their public support to their nomination.

“I have participated twice in the regional elections. So whatever my fate is, I must be prepared – even if it means not joining the race. Don’t always assume that every ambition must be fulfilled,” Ridwan said on Saturday, as quoted by Tempo.

Meanwhile, Ganjar was given a slap on the wrist by his party for going on the record to say he was ready to run.

Trump card or misdirect?

For the KIB itself, there is some momentum behind Ridwan’s nomination.

Asked about the possibility of having the coalition pair Ridwan with Ganjar, PPP deputy chairman Arsul Sani said the party would consider it if the other partners supported it.

“If Golkar and PAN agree, then the PPP will follow suit,” Arsul was quoted by Tempo as saying, noting that both names enjoyed grassroots support from party members.

For Golkar, the de facto leader of the coalition, the choice is less clear. The party is still pushing chairman Airlangga Hartarto – or at least a card-carrying political party member from the KIB – to get the coalition’s nomination.

“We are still prioritizing the nomination of party cadres as presidential and vice presidential candidates, including those from Golkar, PAN and PPP,” Golkar’s chairman of the central board committee, Ace Hasan Syadzily, told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.

However, Ace also acknowledged that Ridwan had been in touch with Golkar, albeit in the context of reelection.

“Our conversations haven’t been about [exploring] a vice presidential candidacy. He has told me it would be most realistic to run again for [West Java] governor,” Ace said.

And even if Ridwan was open to entering national politics, Ace said, Golkar would welcome him only if he helped Airlangga secure support in West Java.

Ridwan has been candid about his plan to join a political party by the end of this year. His presence at Golkar’s anniversary celebration on Oct. 21 has stirred speculation that the popular governor is set to join the party’s ranks.

The KIB claims not to have entered into any formal discussions on nominating a presidential or vice presidential candidate, although the alliance is set to have another meeting in Makassar, South Sulawesi, on Saturday.

Bawono Kumoro, a political researcher for Indikator Politik, said Ridwan would make for a deft choice but that his chance to run under the KIB rested with Airlangga.

“If Airlangga and his clique in Golkar are willing to pass the torch, Ridwan might have a chance to run, but only if he joins the party first,” he told the Post.

Ridwan’s growing popularity in West Java might help boost support for Ganjar in another one of the country’s most populous provinces, especially considering that support for Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto has shifted to Ridwan and NasDem Party nominee Anies Baswedan.

Another possibility, Bawono said, was that the PAN endorsement was intended to direct Ridwan to the presidential race while Bima vied for the West Java governorship.