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Japan’s new leadership
Whoever takes over as prime minister will have little chance to redirect Japan’s economic path and foreign policy. First of all, he or she will have to deal with the deadly COVID-19. The new leader will also have to maintain party stability, as several factions will be waiting for the prime minister to make a blunder before the September 2021 election.
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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe takes off his mask at the start of a news conference at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, August 28, 2020. (Pool/Reuters/Franck Robichon)
T
he COVID-19 pandemic has not only crushed Japan’s economy, but also its hopes of staging a glorious 2020 Summer Olympics. Amid these gloomy circumstances, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation, citing deteriorating health.
He has led Japan since 2012, making him the country’s longest serving prime minister. He briefly held the post from 2006 to 2007, before leaving office also because of health reasons.
Read also: Japanese PM Abe resigns over worsening health
What will be the repercussions of Abe’s resignation on the world, especially Asia? Japan is the world’s third most powerful economy after the United States and China, which is why other countries will closely follow the succession plans in Tokyo.
Abe’s right-hand man Yoshihide Suga, who is also the chief Cabinet secretary, has emerged as a leading candidate to take over from Abe. Suga has told Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai he is intending to run for party president, and therefore prime minister.
The new LDP party president will almost automatically replace Abe as prime minister, because the party, along with its ally Koimeto, has full control over Diet. LDP is likely to convene an extraordinary Diet session to formally nominate the new leader and prime minister on Sept. 17, Jiji Press reported.
Other prominent candidates for prime minister include Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, staunch Abe critic Shigeru Ishiba, Taro Kono, Shinziro Koizumi and Fumio Kishida. Some of the candidates come from political dynasties, such as Koizumi and Kono.
Whoever takes over as prime minister will have little chance to redirect Japan’s economic path and foreign policy. First of all, he or she will have to deal with the deadly COVID-19. The new leader will also have to maintain party stability, as several factions will be waiting for the prime minister to make a blunder before the September 2021 election.
On foreign policy, post-Abe Japan will likely continue to prioritize its close relations with the US and probably hope Donald Trump loses the November election. Abe and Trump had talked dozens of times, and the US president persistently asked Japan to pay more for the US’ military protection and widen its market for US products.
Read also: What has Abe's signature 'Abenomics' achieved?
The more assertive China and the hostile South Korea also remain high on Japan’s foreign policy agenda, as is its menacing nuclear neighbor North Korea. East Asia will sap much of Japan’s energy, because its former colonies in the region have still not forgiven Japan for its ruthless rule during World War II.
When it comes to ASEAN, Abe’s successor will continue to treat the regional bloc well because it has become a long-time key economic and trade partner of Japan. As for Indonesia, Japan is a major goods and services export destination and a top source of direct investment. President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo acknowledged in a tweet that under Abe’s leadership, bilateral relations between the two countries had grown stronger.
At least for a while, however, ASEAN, including Indonesia, cannot expect the new prime minister to level up the partnership. Nevertheless, the new prime minister needs to handle ASEAN with care, as the 10-member grouping can look to China for deals that benefit all.
