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RI must shift to investment-focused economy as population growth slows, experts say
Experts say slowing population growth could impact the Indonesian economy, given its reliance on household consumption for more than 50 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
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Family welfare volunteers measure the height of a girl under the age of 5 at an integrated health post in the Bougenvile area of Depok, West Java, on Sept. 7. The government is seeking to bring the child stunting rate down to 14 percent by 2024. (Antara/Yulius Satria Wijaya)
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ndonesia is projected to lose its place as the world’s fourth most populous country in the coming decades, as both Nigeria and Pakistan will surpass the country by 2045, according to the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas).
Bappenas head Suharso Monoarfa said on May 16 that Indonesia’s population would likely grow more slowly in the future, as the total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, would fall to 1.9 in the next two decades, from around 2.28 in 2020.
That number is below the developed country replacement fertility rate of about 2.1 births per woman, according to the UN, meaning the population of Indonesia will age and eventually begin to decline.
Experts told The Jakarta Post that slowing population growth could impact the Indonesian economy, given its reliance on household consumption for more than 50 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), but that the effects would not be apparent until much later.
“Slowing population growth will not directly affect economic growth today, as the process takes a long time,” said Turro Wongkaren, a senior researcher at the University of Indonesia’s Demography Institute, on Thursday.
Read also: Indonesia still gunning for fourth-largest economy by 2045
Turro said the country would continue to enjoy its demographic dividend, a period in which the working-age population exceeds the non-working-age one and which generally allows for increased economic growth, for some time. The phenomenon is projected to peak around 2030 and is expected to end by 2040.
