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Conflict in the Korean Peninsula
Tensions are heightening in the Korean Peninsula of late as the situation is turning more hostile as both sides across the 38th Parallel continue to harden their positions
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ensions are heightening in the Korean Peninsula of late as the situation is turning more hostile as both sides across the 38th Parallel continue to harden their positions. The Nov. 23 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island was the fourth conflict in the Yellow Sea in the past decade, which saw naval clashes in 1999, 2002 and 2009.
In the latest artillery attack on Yeonpyeong, North Korea said it was responding to provocation by South Korean military exercises taking place along the Northern Limit Line, which serves as a maritime boundary between the two Koreas.
Reacting to the shelling, US President Barack Obama has pledged support for South Korea and urged China to restrain its friends in Pyongyang. Obama stressed that North Korea must stop its provocative actions, which will only lead to further isolation, and abide by the terms of the Armistice Agreement and its obligations under international law.
In a demonstration of this solidarity, the US and South Korea proceeded with their annual joint military exercises in the Yellow Sea, south of Yeonpyeong.
The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS George Washington, and other warships, including destroyers, were deployed for the four-day exercise that began on Nov. 28.
This show of force was aimed at deterring Pyongyang from further aggression, while placating the leadership in Seoul. Meanwhile, North Korea has threatened to “deal a merciless military counter-attack at any provocative act of intruding into its territorial waters”.
China’s Foreign Ministry had warned against the move, cautioning that the exercise in the Yellow Sea would infringe on the country’s sovereignty. Its spokesperson said: “We oppose any party to take any military acts in our exclusive economic zone without permission.”
China appears to be more concerned about the economic fallout of the conflict between the two Koreas, rather than addressing the intensifying enmity between the North and South.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has been under fire by hawks in the National Assembly for not launching a swift counter-attack for the assault on Yeonpyeong.
Forceful military retaliation may be a show of bravado but President Lee has shown admirable restraint by defending Yeonpyeong through artillery exchanges across the border into North Korea instead of launching more deadly weapons at Pyongyang.
Instead of inflicting lethal revenge on North Korea, President Lee has taken steps to beef up the defense of Yeonpyeong and neighboring islands with additional troops and artillery.
His ability to manage the tense situation with wisdom and caution, which his political opponents regard as weakness, is crucial to avoid an all-out war in the Korean Peninsula under the current explosive situation.
However, his address to the nation on Nov. 29 was aimed at appeasing his critics by taking on a hardened stand: “I am standing here keenly aware that I am responsible for not having been able to protect the lives and property of the people. I understand very well that you were greatly disappointed with how we responded to the shelling of Yeonpyeongdo [Yeonpyeong Island] by North Korea... We are aware of the historic lesson that a disgraceful peace achieved through intimidation only brings about greater harm in the end.
“Only courage that defies retreat under any threat or provocation will bring about genuine peace. If the North commits any additional provocations against the South, we will make sure that it pays a dear price without fail.”
South Korea may have the military might and the backing of the US in the provision of a security shield, but North Korea has the nuclear weapons and the ability, even the urge to use them.
It is feared that the eccentric and unpredictable North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il will be tempted to use more than just torpedos or artillery on South Korea.
North Korea had recently unveiled its light-water reactor and uranium enrichment facility which can be used to produce nuclear warheads to add to its modest nuclear arsenal.
These warheads can be attached to ballistic missiles that are within reach of Seoul and other cities.
Last year, Pyongyang conducted a long-range missile test and an underground nuclear test that caused international alarm and censure.
That incident and other hostilities towards South Korea in the recent past has increased anxiety and insecurity, which helped to put to rest the hopes of South Koreans for peace and reconciliation through the Sunshine Policy of rapprochement with the North, that was initiated by then President Kim Dae-jung.
“The case of North Korea illustrates the incapability of the international community to deal with rogue states that do not follow internationally accepted standards of behavior.”
His policy of engagement with Pyongyang was aimed at confidence-building through cultural, tourism and commercial links. The policy allowed for the historic reunion of families which had been separated by the Korean War. Then hopes for the reunification of the two Koreas seemed a possibility.
South Korea had set up a dedicated Unification Ministry to handle diplomatic talks to pave the way for the future. The goodwill was continued by President Roh Moo-hyun, until he stepped down in 2008, to be succeeded by President Lee.
China’s response to the latest aggression by North Korea has been cautious, calling for restraint but not condemning any side. China has been a major benefactor of North Korea, providing food and energy, and wielding great influence over the impoverished country through aid and diplomatic support.
China can play a pivotal role in regional stability. It has to balance its political ties with North Korea as well as its economic ties with South Korea. Beijing has a major responsibility in the region to match expectations it has created in the past decade as a global force for peace and security.
Dialogue and diplomacy have not served as effective tools in bringing North Korea back in line with the international community.
A resumption of the Six-Party Talks between North and South Korea, the US, China, Japan and Russia, a process that was abandoned by North Korea two years ago, would be useful to ease tensions.
This is the critical short-term objective at this stage, to avoid the escalation of the armed conflict.
China has called for a restart of the Six-Party Talks in Beijing in early December but South Korea has not warmed up to the idea, saying it is unwilling to talk to North Korea which is behaving in a belligerent way.
It may be difficult but not impossible to get the dialogue going at this stage of anger and distrust when national prides have been dented. But any other option is dangerous for the Korean Peninsula and the region.
The escalating conflict is worrying for countries in East Asia, as well as the international community. The ongoing dispute in the Korean Peninsula should be brought to the immediate attention of the Security Council.
The case of North Korea illustrates the incapability of the international community to deal with rogue states that do not follow internationally accepted standards of behavior.
But that should not be an excuse to ignore the role of the Council as the ultimate source of legitimacy to mediate and reduce the tensions that can engulf the entire Peninsula in a massive conflagration and devastation that the world would not wish to see.
The writer, a former UN Special Representative, is a Brussels-based columnist.
