ife goes on. The saying may be applicable to the government at present, after it was forced to swallow a bitter pill by ratings agency S&P Global Ratings.
Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro tried hard to appear indifferent in front of reporters on Thursday, when discussing an announcement made by the agency just a day before.
“I feel that the grade was unsuitable. We will continue to maintain our economy, but investors have already said that S&P is not important,” he said at the House of Representatives.
S&P — part of the “Big Three”, along with Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service — announced it had maintained Indonesia’s sovereign credit level just one notch below investment grade level, at BB+ with a positive outlook.
It went against widespread expectations of a raise to investment grade.
While S&P applauded the government’s structural reforms, it found the efforts undeserving of a ratings upgrade as many other improvements were still needed.
It stated that fiscal performance had not improved in tandem with the reforms for cyclical and structural reasons, a judgment that Bambang found severely lacking.
“Our fiscal condition is the same as it was before, so this is a reason that has been used before. This means that it never analyzes anything and is just repeating the same things,” he said.
Despite his best efforts to hide his disappointment, his words suggested it was not yet over.
The State Palace shared his feelings. Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung said S&P was not the only renowned international ratings agency in the world.
“The fiscal issue is not exclusively Indonesian. It is caused by a massive global economic slowdown that is also happening in China, Argentina, Russia and Brazil,” he said. “We are lucky to survive with near 5 percent growth.”
The S&P announcement came on the back of ambitious economic targets set by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s administration.
Jokowi seeks to boost the country’s low tax payments to fund infrastructure megaprojects that would theoretically boost the economy.
The reality, however, leaves a lot to be desired. The government failed to meet its tax collection target last year, reaching only 81.5 percent of the Rp 1.29 quadrillion (US$94 billion) target.
Consequently, the state budget deficit rose to 2.5 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, nearing the legally allowed level of 3 percent.
Although the government remains optimistic and hopes to maintain a 2.48 percent deficit for the remainder of the year, S&P predicted a higher deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2016.
The government, especially Bambang, whose fiscal responsibilities were put in the spotlight by S&P, might find it heartening that the announcement did little to dent several key economic indicators.
OCBC Bank economist Wellian Wiranto wrote in a research note that the 10-year yield for local sovereign bonds moved up to 7.84 from 7.81, while the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) — the main benchmark of the Indonesia Stock Exchange — gained 0.1 percent.
The rupiah remained unchanged as well. “Hopefully, the non-upgrade will act to spur on the administration’s overall reform efforts,” Wellian said.
“If the economy starts to show more solid signs of improvement because of continued government policy enlightenment, the market would take notice and react similarly — with or without a bunch of analysts anointing it to be so anyway.”
On the same day of the S&P announcement, BMI Research, part of the Fitch Group, published a research note highlighting Indonesia’s potential as a key emerging market.
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