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Anticipating the worst-case scenarios of G20 Indonesia
Holding the G20 presidency, Indonesia is allowed to invite guest countries as observers to participate in related activities and discussions yet has no right to determine the final G20 outcomes.
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Green car: An official charges an electric car on Friday after the launch of the first public electric vehicle (EV) charging station, which will be used for EVs transporting world leaders during the Group of 20 summit in October, in Nusa Dua, Bali. (AFP/Sonny Tumbelaka)
Indonesia’s presidency of the Group of 20 is expected to bring transformation and change to the forum, which has often been criticized for being politically divided, lacking in legitimacy and resulting in inadequate outcomes that fail to address wide-ranging global economic problems.
Hosting this year’s G20 summit, Indonesia aims to benefit from the forum as a platform to bring about a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient economy. The vision is generated through numerous fundamental improvements under three main priority topics: global health architecture, digital transformation and energy transition.
However, the escalating Ukraine-Russia war has placed us into a different story. G20 Indonesia will most likely be convened amid boiling temperatures of geopolitical tensions that involve many G20 member states. Today, there are growing concerns over Russia’s participation at the summit, spilled by the stance to isolate President Vladimir Putin from major international meetings.
Indonesia’s government, according to G20 cosherpa Triansyah Djani, views that the country will follow all of the regulations and procedures agreed in the forum as usual and urge all member states to focus on the global recovery agenda after the pandemic. Therefore, G20 Indonesia is going to invite Russia to attend as there are no concrete decisions or even procedural steps to kick Moscow out of the forum just yet.
However, Indonesia should not underestimate the concerns over Russia’s presence in the G20, as being silent and holding the forum like business as usual would be counterproductive. We are in the middle of another distressing crisis.
So far, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has stated his rejection to sit around a table with Putin; meanwhile, United States President Joe Biden said Russia should be kicked out of the group as a measure against its invasion of Ukraine and open an option to invite Ukraine to the G20 summit if Indonesia resists.
The political division within the G20 is indeed widening and becoming more critical than past presidencies. Indonesia is under a cliff-hanging test, not only to hold a successful forum but also to bring back the confidence and trust in multilateralism.
