TheJakartaPost

Please Update your browser

Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.

Jakarta Post

Donald Trump’s self-fulfilling crisis

Donald Trump’s bleak diagnosis of the US economy is not grounded in reality – at least not yet.

Stephen S. Roach (The Jakarta Post)
Premium
Project Syndicate/New Haven, United States
Tue, March 4, 2025 Published on Mar. 3, 2025 Published on 2025-03-03T14:48:16+07:00

Change text size

Gift Premium Articles
to Anyone

Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!
Donald Trump’s self-fulfilling crisis United States President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on Feb. 3, 2025 in Washington, DC. (AFP/Getty Images/Anna Moneymaker)

“I alone can fix it,” Donald Trump proclaimed in 2016, when accepting the United States Republican nomination for president. Fix what, exactly? Among other problems, “the economy, stupid,” to borrow the famous mantra from Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential run. 

Last year, Trump once again campaigned on the premise that the US economy was “in crisis” and a “disaster.” He began his second term with a solemn promise to usher in “the golden age of America.”

Donald Trump’s bleak diagnosis of the US economy is not grounded in reality, at least not yet. 

America’s “misery index”, the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates, hardly suggests an economy in dire straits: it was 7 percent in January, down dramatically from its post-pandemic peak of 12.7 percent in mid-2022, and more than two percentage points below its postwar average of 9.2 percent. 

In fact, the latest reading is virtually identical to the 6.9 percent average recorded during Trump’s first administration (2017-20), which he fondly recalls as “the greatest economy in the history of the world.”

Campaign rhetoric is one thing; acting on it is quite another, especially if its core premise is false. The risk is that the initial policy frenzy of Trump 2.0, some 73 executive orders in his first month back, could spark the very crisis he currently imagines is now at hand.

Viewpoint

Every Thursday

Whether you're looking to broaden your horizons or stay informed on the latest developments, "Viewpoint" is the perfect source for anyone seeking to engage with the issues that matter most.

By registering, you agree with The Jakarta Post's

Thank You

for signing up our newsletter!

Please check your email for your newsletter subscription.

View More Newsletter

The inflationary impact of tariffs is a case in point. Here, I find Trump’s new “reciprocal” tariff plan more worrying than targeted bilateral tariff hikes (which are still a serious blunder, as I have argued ad nauseam). 

to Read Full Story

  • Unlimited access to our web and app content
  • e-Post daily digital newspaper
  • No advertisements, no interruptions
  • Privileged access to our events and programs
  • Subscription to our newsletters
or

Purchase access to this article for

We accept

TJP - Visa
TJP - Mastercard
TJP - GoPay

Redirecting you to payment page

Pay per article

Donald Trump’s self-fulfilling crisis

Rp 35,000 / article

1
Create your free account
By proceeding, you consent to the revised Terms of Use, and Privacy Policy.
Already have an account?

2
  • Palmerat Barat No. 142-143
  • Central Jakarta
  • DKI Jakarta
  • Indonesia
  • 10270
  • +6283816779933
2
Total Rp 35,000

Your Opinion Matters

Share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.

Enter at least 30 characters
0 / 30

Thank You

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.

Share options

Quickly share this news with your network—keep everyone informed with just a single click!

Change text size options

Customize your reading experience by adjusting the text size to small, medium, or large—find what’s most comfortable for you.

Gift Premium Articles
to Anyone

Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!

Continue in the app

Get the best experience—faster access, exclusive features, and a seamless way to stay updated.