On the heels of escalating trade tension, including a 32 percent tariff slapped on Indonesian exports, came a surprising turn: A 90-day pause.

Officially, it’s a “strategic review period”. Unofficially, it’s the kind of cliffhanger that leaves markets, trade ministers and exporters wondering whether to exhale or to brace for Act II. And as expected, not everyone’s waiting quietly.

China, for instance, has responded with an 84 percent tariff on US goods, following the US' increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125 percent, setting the stage for what may become a wider and less predictable global standoff.

For Indonesia, the pause offers neither clarity nor comfort. It merely presses “pause” on the chaos, not “cancel”. And as the global system tilts further into protectionist reflexes and retaliatory theatrics, Indonesia must remain sharp-eyed and steady-footed. Because while others play chess, some pieces, like us, risk becoming the board.

Earlier this month, the US announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with a minimum 10 percent on most countries, and up to 32 percent for Indonesia. The move has been branded as fair trade but is being wielded like a bargaining chip.

In the weeks that followed, China retaliated, Vietnam took a hit with a 46 percent tariff and Indonesia watched its trade surplus, US$16.8 billion with the US in 2024, hanging in limbo. Meanwhile, countries like Vietnam and Cambodia wasted no time, swiftly initiating negotiations to soften the blow and protect market access.