Prime Minister Johnson’s mandate for government has been always about Brexit. Johnson achieved this, taking the country out of the EU at the end of 2019. Currently, the United Kingdom maintains the same relationship with the bloc for a one-year transition period that expires in December.

Negotiations for a trade deal to govern a new economic relationship have been ongoing through the year – according to a timeline that the UK determined – but the clock is ticking and BoJo’s announcement is the most serious signal yet that the government is braced for a shock exit.

In truth, Johnson’s Brexit agenda has been knocked off course by three very separate events.

First, both he and the nation he leads succumbed to COVID-19. His hospitalization at the very beginning of the pandemic appeared to sap the government of leadership at a crucial point in time. His government appeared to struggle with a coherent response to the pandemic. Britain has been hit harder than any other European country by coronavirus and after a brief respite over the summer, its recurrence as the winter season arrives presents a serious challenge for both the health – and wealth – of the nation. 

Second, Johnson – who was born in New York – had pinned hopes on the UK finalizing a trade deal with the US.  President Trump, who had backed Johnson during the Brexit campaign, fueled the optimism by committing to a “massive” trade deal by the end of 2020. But the energy and momentum for such a deal quickly disappeared. 

UK trade negotiators were tasked with prioritizing an EU trade deal, recognizing that political campaigning would take valuable attention away from serious trade talks.  Wait until after Nov. 3, goes the refrain.

Yet the lazy assumption in London that President Donald Trump would be reelected has been dispatched. Belated efforts are underway to foster relations with the Biden campaign. In the event Biden – an Irish American who strongly opposed Brexit – is elected Johnson and his negotiators will have an uphill struggle to build political capital in Washington, let alone get any preferential trade deal.

Third – and perhaps most importantly – the lack of clarity in No.10 about what the long-term geopolitical and economic vision for the UK is appears to frustrate Johnson’s administration and, as a result, his authority. Is the UK going to remain closely anchored to the EU? Will it chart a course that aligns much closer to the US? 

Recent interventions about Hong Kong suggest it is not pinning hopes on forging a special relationship with China. Or is the Johnson objective to create a fourth, non-aligned group of economies to act as a counter balance to the US, China and the EU?

Johnson’s infectious sunshine policy, while optimistic for the future, has been vague on detail. It looks suspiciously like he and the administration he leads doesn’t have a vision for the country.

For the UK to strike a trade deal with the EU which can be ratified and become legally enforceable by the end of 2020 – and in time for the end of the transition period – an agreement will have to be struck by the end of October, say trade negotiators.  There is likely to be some in No.10 hoping to string out the negotiations until after the outcome of the US Presidential election hoping a surprise Trump victory may give them additional leverage.

However, a more realistic reading of the situation is that in the next two weeks Johnson will have little choice but to accept the EU’s deal on the table Statements about preparing the country for a complete break are likely to be a final negotiating tactic. 

In the unlikely event Johnson walks away from a deal, he is going to need a lot more than optimism to sell it as a victory to Brexit-weary, pandemic-hit Britons.

 ***

The writer is a corporate and public affairs specialist at The Cape Partnership, formerly worked in the House of Commons, the House of Lords and the European Parliament. The views expressed are his own.

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