My paper itself discusses the nexus of development and demography, which attempts to prove or disprove the seemingly propitious notion of the demographic dividend or bonus. Unfortunately, it appears that the demographic dividend is rarely realized because the quality of Indonesian human resources is still relatively low compared to that of peer countries, not to mention the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before I started my session, I conducted a poll for the audience to choose between two opposing policy options. First, “quantity over quality", which aims to employ as many available workers as possible in light of the increasing productive-age segment and consequently spurs job creation. Second is the opposite, “quality over quantity”, which prioritizes the quality enhancement of human resources through education, health and other human development-related programs.

From 55 responses, the majority (46) opted for the latter. Yes, I did not provide a third option that was probably the ideal — prioritizing both employment creation and quality enhancement — simply to ensure that a clear priority is made.

Within the last two decades, the discourse on demographic bonus in the country often leads to a rather optimistic scenario that the working-age population, which now accounts for about 70 percent of the people in Indonesia, will be the key to the advancement of development indicators. Nevertheless, we have to acknowledge the impending global megatrends such as automation, climate change, cultural shifts and globalization into the equation.

It is predicted that these factors will shape the form and scale of future jobs. Until today, scholars have been in contention whether in the future jobs will still be available or diminished significantly, yet the most important subject is whether our workforce is competitive enough to face the challenge.    

Two weeks before the IRSA conference, the World Bank launched a report titled “Pathways to Middle-Class Jobs in Indonesia”. One among several findings in the report is that only 13 million workers (15 percent) are able to lead a middle-class way of life. The limited availability of middle-class jobs is attributed to many factors, but the most striking one is that most workers in Indonesia are not equipped to hold middle-class jobs.

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