A surprise visit to Taiwan by a senior United States official earlier this week has enraged China and overshadowed regional meetings convened in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh, where ASEAN is hopeful that the superpower rivalry will not add to the geopolitical turmoil created by the war in Ukraine.

Released on Thursday, the ASEAN foreign ministers’ statement on the cross-strait development noted that recent developments are taking place “in the area adjacent with the ASEAN region”, prompting the ministers to call for “maximum restraint” from the enactment of any “provocative actions”.

“ASEAN is concerned with the international and regional volatility [...] which could destabilize the region and eventually could lead to miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts and unpredictable consequences among major powers,” the ministers said in a statement.

“[We call] for the upholding [of the] principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia [TAC]. We reiterate ASEAN member states’ support for their respective One China [policies]”.

The TAC is a 1976 guideline that promotes “peaceful coexistence and friendly cooperation among states in Southeast Asia”, which ASEAN partners are required to sign upon joining the regional network. Both the US and China signed the treaty in 2009 and 2003, respectively.

‘An angry giant’

Beijing’s wrath over US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on Wednesday is showing no sign of abating, with the Chinese navy on Thursday firing artillery that resulted in the island canceling at least 40 flights from its airports. The US responded by deploying warships to the area.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday on the sidelines of the ASEAN post-ministerial conferences that Pelosi’s visit had “damaged peace across the Taiwan Straits, supported separatism and clamored for bloc confrontation”, state-owned media China Daily reported. The minister emphasized that Beijing would not stand by while Washington “instigates division”.

“[The visit] suggests that the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy is extremely confrontational and harmful, and demonstrates US hypocrisy and double standards on international rules,” said Wang.

“If China does not resolutely counter the US’ manic, irresponsible and extremely irrational deeds, the international principles of respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity would simply become a piece of blank paper.”

In a separate press briefing prior to the ASEAN-US meeting, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that the administration of President Joe Biden remains committed to the One China policy, emphasizing that “nothing has changed about [the US] position”.

“I hope Beijing will not manufacture a crisis or seek a pretext to increase its aggressive military activity,” Blinken said. “We and the countries around the world believe that escalation serves no one and could have unintended consequences that serve no one’s interests, including ASEAN countries [and] China.”

While China’s aggression is mostly pointed toward Taiwan and the US, ASEAN is fearful of experiencing a latent effect from the rift if Beijing decides to assert its dominance in the South China Sea, said Lina Alexandra, head of the department of politics and international relations at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“I can imagine China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea – we are talking about an angry giant here,” she told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

The much-contested South China Sea has already given the regional bloc an ample amount of work to do, as several of its members – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – are involved in territorial disputes with Beijing. Since 2018, ASEAN and China have been negotiating a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea and a second reading of the draft codex is imminent.

But with the complications Pelosi’s visit has brought about, ASEAN may see hurdles erected to its COC progress.

“We can anticipate that happening. China is already moody; and if the US continues its provocation for the worse, then it would impact [ASEAN] over the long term,” Lina continued.

Despite concerns looming over the Indo-Pacific region, however, Lina said it was highly unlikely that the tensions would further evolve into open conflict. China, whose primary concerns are focused on economic matters, will not rationally start a conflict that would impair its finances – after all, Taiwan is dependent on China, and Beijing should by now have learned a few lessons from the war in Ukraine, Lina added.

“[China’s] reaction [to the visit] is vigorous because there is a domestic factor at play. The Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress is about to take place in October, so they are starting to fortify their internal affairs,” said the researcher.

“This is common prior to a political event.”

Regardless of whether a true threat is imminent, Lina said that a lengthy discourse about Taiwan could be expected at Friday’s ARF, especially if China decides to be as vocal as it has been on the margins of Thursday’s meeting.

“Because America has been quite the troublemaker,” she said.