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Megawati is reliant on Jokowi, now more than ever
Jokowi has several times signaled his preference for Ganjar as his successor.
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P
robably for the first time since he came to power in 2014, President Joko “Jokowi’ Widodo found himself in a state of powerlessness as he had to listen to a two-hour speech by Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, during which she reminded him he would have been nobody without her support in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
Is that the case?
Jokowi responded with a broad smile when Megawati said “Pak Jokowi without the PDI-P – now that would be a pity”. She also mocked the attempts by Jokowi’s volunteer groups to push for a third presidential term for him, which is unconstitutional.
Megawati’s speech highlighted the PDI-P’s golden jubilee celebration at the Jakarta International Expo in Kemayoran, Central Jakarta on Jan. 10.
Jokowi nodded his head, when Megawati, the country’s fifth president, showed off her absolute power. She refused to announce her choice of presidential candidate, although the party elites, including her daughter Puan Maharani, had told the media she would finally disclose that best kept secret.
“It is my absolute prerogative,” Megawati said of the party’s mandate to pick a presidential candidate. The PDI-P is the only party that can nominate its presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the 2024 race without the necessity to form a coalition.
“I am very pleased that our chairperson Ibu Megawati Soekarnputri has stated that the candidate will come from within the party. Bu Mega in making her decision will be conscientious and will not be reckless like other [political parties]. No matter how hard we push, she will not falter although the candidate's name is in her pocket. We all wait patiently,” said Jokowi in his remarks following Megawati.
Jokowi maintained his composure and refrained from any rebuttal because he knew it would be next to impossible for Megawati to choose the party’s presidential candidate without his approval.
Indeed, Megawati has delayed the much-awaited announcement until June. According to PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto, before the party’s final preparation for the strategic decision on Pancasila Day on June 1, Megawati will meet President Jokowi.
It is now clear that Megawati has to compromise with the President’s interest in deciding the party’s candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
In 2014, Megawati named Jokowi, who was the Jakarta governor, as the PDI-P’s presidential candidate, although pressures mounted from within the party for her to contest the election herself. Jokowi won the presidency and the PDI-P won the most seats in the House of Representatives.
It took Jokowi less than two years to prove he was not just a PDI-P functionary, as Megawati had suggested, with his ability to build a strong ruling coalition. Jokowi won his second term in 2019 and created an even bigger coalition by bringing his two-time presidential election rival Prabowo Subianto and his Gerindra Party into the government.
For his part, the President knows very well how to entertain Megawati. He appointed her to key positions in the Agency of Pancasila Ideology Education (BPIP) and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). He also asks for her advice on many state affairs, including on Cabinet reshuffles.
Megawati’s bid to reinstate the closed-list electoral system for the 2024 legislative election recently failed due to opposition from the other eight parties represented in the House. Had she succeeded, voters would have chosen political parties, instead of legislative candidates, as happened in elections prior to 2004.
Megawati, who will turn 76 on Monday, will need Jokowi’s help in facilitating a smooth party succession. With his popular support, evident in a number of opinion surveys, he is the most likely candidate outside of the Sukarno dynasty to lead the party.
It is safe to say that none of Sukarno’s descendants, including Megawati’s three children, is ready to take over the party’s leadership from Megawati yet. They need at least a few years to be finally ready to take charge, if ever.
Megawati also knows it would be a suicidal act to insist on nominating Puan as her presidential candidate. Supporters of the party, especially younger voters, would abandon the PDI-P. In fact, the party is torn between Puan and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo when it comes to presidential candidates.
But in an interview with a private TV station after the party anniversary, for the first time Puan hinted at withdrawing from the race and that her mother would pick someone else. It seems Puan realizes she should bury her ambition if she wants the PDI-P to win the legislative and presidential elections for a third time in a row.
Jokowi has several times signaled his preference for Ganjar as his successor. Nearly all public opinion surveys have consistently placed Ganjar on top, with Puan at the bottom of the list.
Megawati has always taken pride in her role as a matriarch for her party followers, and the role of her father Sukarno, the country’s first president, in liberating Indonesia from colonialism.
And to be fair, she was right when she talked about her pivotal role in bringing the PDI-P to the top position despite all violent attempts by then-president Soeharto to crack down on the party during his 32-year dictatorship until his fall in 1998. The party won the country’s first democratic legislative elections in 1999, but she could not win the presidential seat following fierce opposition from Islamic-oriented parties.
Megawati is and will remain the PDI-P’s supreme leader but she now also realizes that she has to make a compromise with Jokowi on the presidential candidate.
Megawati also knows that she has little choice but to deeply involve Jokowi in preparing for the party succession. Now Jokowi is slowly becoming an uncontended kingmaker, if not the king himself.
Like it or not, Megawati now is dependent on Jokowi, more than ever.
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The writer is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post.
