In an unexpected turn of events, Anies has officially named Muhaimin, a major supporter of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo who had backed past initiatives to extend the President’s term, as his running mate, igniting the ire of the Democratic Party, which had expected to secure the vice presidential slot for its chairman, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

With the PKB joining and the Democrats defecting from Anies’ Coalition of Change for Unity (KPP), leaving the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) as the only opposition party within the political alliance, it has become problematic to portray Anies as an opposition candidate and his coalition the main vehicle for political change.

While the relationship between Jokowi and NasDem chairman Surya Paloh remains fractious, the PKB’s support for Anies has practically made him a presidential candidate backed by two major pro-Jokowi parties that are set to protect his legacies.

The PKB move has also paved the way for a possible creation of a fourth axis, consisting of the Democrats, the PKS and the United Development Party (PPP), to pair PPP politician Sandiaga Uno, another Jokowi loyalist, and Agus Yudhoyono. In this scenario, the 2024 race will be contested by four pro-Jokowi contenders.

‘Half-hearted’ opposition

In his speech at a rally to officially declare their electoral bid in Surabaya, East Java, Anies welcomed the PKB as the newest member of the KPP. The addition of the PKB to the alliance, he said, would “fill gaps and bring in fresh points of view” to the cooperation. “With the PKB joining, it feels like this alliance will move faster, be bigger and more stable,” Anies said at the event, which was attended by NasDem and PKB members only.

Muhaimin, meanwhile, contended that fighting for change and reform, the tagline of Anies’ campaign, was in fact in accordance with the teachings of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), but added that the traditional Muslim organization also believed that “there are solid foundations pioneered and passed on through generations that must be continued”.

“Changes that we want are changes that also continue to maintain the successes and achievements made by the government from period to period, especially those under the leadership of Pak Jokowi," Muhaimin said, in an apparent attempt to neutralize the confrontational approach of the pro-Anies coalition when it was dominated by the Democratic Party and the PKS, the only two opposition parties under Jokowi.

Read also: Anies pact splits over Muhaimin VP moves

Lecturer of Paramadina University Ahmad Khoirul said the newly formed NasDem-PKB alliance was the “result of Surya’s compromise with Jokowi” and called it “a new political lifeboat formed by the Palace”. “Dissolution of the alliance challenging the government cannot be separated from NasDem's positioning, which seems half-hearted in being at the opposite end of the government,” Umam said. “Rather than challenging the government, NasDem sought to renegotiate with the power holders.”

Jokowi, who has maintained overwhelming popularity nearing the end of his presidency, received a barrage of criticism after he admitted in June to cawe-cawe (interfering) in the hunt for his successor, in the name of the nation’s interests.

It is no surprise that two days prior to Saturday’s declaration of the Anies-Muhaimin ticket, Jokowi hosted Surya at the Presidential Palace, where the two discussed the possible pairing of Anies-Muhaimin, as admitted by Surya himself. The President, who seeks to play the role of a kingmaker for 2024 in his attempt to retain the continuity of his flagship programs, also held a meeting with two presidential candidates Prabowo Subianto of Gerindra Party and Ganjar Pranowo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) earlier that day.

Broken promises

Saturday’s declaration followed a flurry of dealmaking last week, where Paloh, the main backer of the former Jakarta governor, played a pivotal role in bringing both Anies and Muhaimin into an agreement to run together in the February polls.

Muhaimin had previously been a part of the rival camp supporting Prabowo, but later decided to jump ship after an apparent clash with Prabowo over his running mate choice.

The backdoor deal has prompted former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and his Democratic Party, the country’s largest opposition party, to withdraw from the alliance, accusing Anies of being “dishonest” and backpedaling on a promise to choose Agus as his running mate.

Read also: Dems at center of 2024 alliance building

The PKS, which did not attend Saturday’s declaration, made clear that it remained a member of the alliance, but said it would consult first with its highest policymaking body the Majelis Syuro (religious council) about the party’s stance over the Anies-Muhaimin pairing.

“We were actually hoping for a better and smoother procedure when the PKB entered the alliance. We really regret what happened,” PKS spokesman Al Muzzammil said.

A fourth axis?

Addressing the Anies-Muhamin pairing in a speech on Friday, the Democrat’s SBY threw allegations that there has been an ongoing plot to block an Anies-Agus pairing from materializing.

He said a minister, acting on behalf of lurah (village chief), a code name for President Jokowi, had been “intensely lobbying” the Democrats to form an alliance with the PKS and the PPP instead. SBY did not name the minister in question.

Read also: Jokowi stresses impartiality in state address

Sandiaga said last month that he would invite the PKS and the Democrats to forge an electoral cooperation together despite the PPP having partnered with the PDI-P, sparking speculations of a potential pairing of Sandiaga and Agus as presidential and vice presidential candidates.

PPP politician Arsul Sani previously said some PPP members had been considering ditching the partnership with the PDI-P if the latter did not name Sandiaga as Ganjar’s running mate.

Responding to Yudhoyono's claim, the PDI-P insisted that partnership with the PPP remained strong. "If such a claim is true [that there was a plan to push for an alternative alliance], we are sure that it was a personal maneuver and not on the orders of the President,” said PDI-P politician Deddy Yevri Sitorus on Saturday. (ahw/ipa)