The President was widely tipped as a kingmaker who could select his successor and later take over the chief post of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) from current matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri. 

Many people, too, hoped they would remember him as a humble but high-achieving president who catapulted the nation to the ranks of high-income countries. His public approval rating, which exceeds 70 percent, could be a strong magnet for the nation’s 204 million registered voters, 102 million of whom are women.

Such expectations, however, are quickly fading now. It will be challenging for the President to control the damage he has done. As the Indonesian proverb goes, Karena setitik nila rusak susu sebelanga (a drop of dye ruins the whole pot of milk).

Many credible pollsters believe Jokowi will not be a lame-duck leader in the last year of his presidency, and he is often thought to be at a level far beyond all political parties. But these days, we can see how the PDI-P has begun to bully Jokowi for what the party believes is an unforgivable betrayal. And the attacks will mount and may become more brutal.

A recent survey by Kompas found that more than 60 percent of respondents believed the President was building his own political dynasty through his two sons and son-in-law. His repeated denials cannot convince the public otherwise, because his moves are so blatant.

Many of his die-hard supporters have now lowered their expectations of Jokowi. They greatly appreciate what the President has done for the country over the last nine years, but that does not mean that they will accept his favored presidential candidate.

In October of next year, he will probably leave Bogor Palace a proud father for having successfully paved the way for his eldest son, Gibran Rakabumi Raka, to win the vice presidency under new president Prabowo Subianto.

Indonesian public officials often commit three big sins: corruption, collusion and nepotism (KKN). Many will confidently say Jokowi and the first family are clean of corruption. But what about collusion and nepotism? The latter applies to Jokowi in light of his successful efforts to make his son Gibran the mayor of Surakarta, his son-in-law Bobby Nasution the mayor of Medan in 2021 and now Gibran the running mate for Prabowo.

Jokowi may join Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines as a sitting president who can usher his offspring into the vice presidency and enter the Indonesian Museum of Records as the first president to do so in the country’s history.

And it may happen that Gibran will be Indonesia's ninth president before 2029 if something goes wrong (God forbid) with the elderly president. Gibran will be 37 and Prabowo 73 in October of next year.

You may say I am rude, but Article 8 of the 1945 Constitution says, "If the president dies, resigns, is impeached or is not capable of implementing his/her obligations during his/her term, he/she will be replaced by the vice president until the end of his/her term."

When Prabowo wins the election, the country should be ready to face a period of political chaos, learning from the ongoing animosity between Jokowi and the PDI-P. It was the PDI-P that made Jokowi president twice, but now he seems to support Prabowo's presidential bid, while the party has chosen Ganjar Pranowo.

If Gibran becomes president, I doubt that major political parties, especially the PDI-P, or people in the grassroots will resist.

I believe the PDI-P will take the lead in opposing the Prabowo government, not to mention if Gibran takes over the highest office in line with Article 8 of the Constitution. The Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM), led by Prabowo, now represents 45 percent of the seats in the House Representatives.

The ruling coalition would immediately collapse if that happened. Coalition members would jump ship, most likely to Megawati's party. What would happen if there was a power vacuum?

Article 8 (3) stipulates that "If the president and the vice president die, resign, are impeached or are permanently incapable of performing their tasks and duties within their term of office simultaneously, the tasks and duties of the presidency shall be undertaken by a joint administration of the Foreign Ministry, the Home Ministry and the Defense Ministry." 

“At the latest thirty days after that, the MPR [People’s Consultative Assembly] shall hold a session to elect a new president and vice president from the tickets nominated by the political parties or coalitions of political parties whose tickets won first and second place in the last presidential election, who will serve for the remainder of the term of office."

That is just the worst-case scenario, but you can rule out such a possibility. For some people, perhaps including Prabowo, age is just number.

Gibran was permitted to join the race after the Constitutional Court decided to make an exception for the presidential age minimum 40 years old.

For me the verdict was a result of evil intentions for two reasons. First, it is a manipulation of power by Constitutional Court Chief Justice Anwar Usman, who is Gibran’s uncle by marriage. Two of the four justices who dissented from the decision, Arief Hidayat and Saldi Isra, concluded in the official documents that the chief justice was very manipulative and forced the judgment to serve his interests.

Many people found it hard to believe Jokowi's claims that he knew nothing about the Constitutional Court’s decision-making.

Second, Anwar married Jokowi's sister, Idayati, in May 2022. The chief justice dismissed allegations of "political marriage" and insisted it was purely based on love. He also denied that Jokowi wanted to invest in him "because Jokowi will no longer be able to run in the 2024 presidential election". 

I think the President is very lucky because Anwar provided a golden ticket for his nephew, Gibran, to contest the upcoming presidential election.

Hopefully, Jokowi will be able do some more magic to calm political tensions for the sake of the nation. But he should prepare from now on to anticipate the worst-case scenario when he is no longer President. 

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The writer is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post. He can be reached at korpurba@gmail.com.