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Insight: Apparently election season comes early in Indonesia
It has been barely more than a year since Indonesia held its third general election, and it is still more than three years from the nation’s next general election
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t has been barely more than a year since Indonesia held its third general election, and it is still more than three years from the nation’s next general election. However, members of Indonesian political elite have already started to prepare themselves for 2014.
Even though it has been more than a decade since democratization started in 1998, the Indonesian elite is still driven by, and continues to demonstrate, a never-ending passion for politics.
Political maneuvering still focuses on one particular issue: the presidency. In fact, since 1998, and even more so since 2004, it seems that no other political issue has attracted more attention from the elite than the question of the presidency.
The latest round of speculation regarding the successor to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), whose term will expire in October 2014, constitutes another example of national obsession with the question of the presidency.
Speculation has begun to circulate that key political actors have started to probe possible options. A game of testing the waters by throwing the names of possible candidates out to the public has begun.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with that. Politicians, by nature, are concerned about power. In this regard, all political actors perfectly understand that if they want to stand in the presidential election, preparations should be made as early as possible in the game. In the Indonesian context, this awareness has also been compelled by the fact that it has still been difficult to gauge who the public might prefer to become president in 2014.
The problem has also been compounded by a lack of visible candidates for the presidency in the post-SBY era. It is true that some familiar names — such as Aburizal Bakrie of the Golkar Party, Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesian Movement (Gerindra) Party, First Lady Kristiani “Ani” Herawati of the ruling Democratic Party and even Hatta Rajasa of the National Mandate Party (PAN) — have been mentioned. But, their popularity, let alone their electability, is still hard to determine.
Meanwhile, new faces are nowhere to be found. There are still no strong and obvious contenders yet.
Is it too early for the political discourse to focus on the question of the general elections and the
presidential contest? Given that Indonesia’s democracy and, of course, the economy are still fraught with other pressing problems that need immediate solutions, one must wonder why the question of presidency has come to dominate discussions.
One might argue that it reflects the growing dissatisfaction, even inside the ruling coalition, with the current administration. They believe that if not for Yudhoyono’s style of leadership many problems would have been resolved. This reflects a strongly-held belief in Indonesia that the executive branch of the government, especially the presidency, is the most important institution for resolving (or aggravating) Indonesia’s problems.
While no one ignores the importance of the presidency, this view tends to ignore the fact that the resolution of Indonesia’s problems also depends on the performance and roles of other institutions. The days when we placed the fate of the nation in the hands of only one person are over. We certainly have no intention to return to the days of strongman rule.
Therefore, while thinking about how the presidency might be more effective, it is also imperative to devote attention to improving the performance of other institutions within the legislature and the judiciary.
However, a more obvious reason for the current discourse on future presidency, in my view, is the assumption commonly-held by political actors: Given that Yudhoyono can no longer run and given the lack of viable candidate, everyone has more or less an equal chance to be elected.
In such circumstances, those harboring the ambition and the intention to compete in the presidential elections in 2014 obviously think it would be wise to start early. It is not difficult to see why the election fever has come so early.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta.
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