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Greek crisis has little impact on Indonesia

As in other emerging markets, share prices on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) mostly fell on Monday amid fears that contagion from the Greek financial crisis might spread to developing countries

Anggi M. Lubis and Grace D. Aminarti (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Tue, June 30, 2015

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Greek crisis has little impact on Indonesia

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s in other emerging markets, share prices on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) mostly fell on Monday amid fears that contagion from the Greek financial crisis might spread to developing countries.

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), IDX'€™s main price indicator, slipped 0.8 percent to end the day at 4,882.58, after falling by 1.3 percent in afternoon trading.

The slump, however, was not as severe as other emerging markets, as analysts said investors had long factored in the Greek situation to their Indonesian investments.

Analysts said there were actually few worries about the impact of the Greek financial crisis on Indonesia. '€œBut many investors sold their shares following the fall in share prices in other Asian markets,'€ an analyst said.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.8 percent to 962.8, the biggest slide since Dec. 1, 2014, Bloomberg reported.

Malaysia and Singapore led Southeast Asia'€™s tumbling indexes by diving more than 1 percent, while most Asia Pacific benchmarks '€” such as Japan, Hong Kong and China '€” registered more than 2 percent slumps on Greece updates.

'€œThis [slump] is purely psychological sentiment, driven by our only similarity with Greece, which is the fact that both Indonesia and Greece are emerging markets. Our similarity with Greece is just the fact that both of us are emerging markets, falling under the same risk profile,'€ Universal Broker head of research Satrio Utomo said.

He said trading activities were still dominated by buy transactions despite the fall in the main price index. In fact, Satrio said that foreign investors booked Rp 80 billion (US$5.9 million) in net purchases in the regular market on Monday, higher than the approximately Rp 50 billion in the previous day'€™s trading.

Andreas Yasakasih, investment director of Valbury Asia Asset Management said there was no need to worry about Greece, with no trade relations with Greece to directly impact Indonesia'€™s economy.

'€œIf there is an impact from Greece'€™s possible default, it will be very indirect, such as from its creditors or with the euro if Greece proceeds to exit the eurozone. But even then the euro is still below the US dollar and Chinese yuan in terms of trading,'€ he explained.

Greece shut its banks and imposed capital controls in a dead-of-night announcement to avert the collapse of its financial system as the country edged closer to an exit from the euro.

The move followed a weekend of turmoil that started with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras'€™ shock announcement late on Friday of a July 5 referendum on austerity measures demanded by the country'€™s creditors, sending people rushing to line up at ATMs and gas stations. The risk of potential contagion if Greece leaves the euro spurred a 1.5 percent fall in the euro on Monday and sparked declines in Asian stocks.

Even ahead of the referendum, Satrio and Andreas said there would be no significant impact on the JCI, as investors might look forward to a potential hike in the US Federal Reserve'€™s fund rate and Indonesia'€™s economic growth.

The US dollar gained 0.24 percent on the rupiah on Monday to 13,339, still below its Malaysian ringgit gains of 0.43 percent.

Coordinating Economic Minister Sofyan Djalil said that Greece would only have a relatively small impact on the rupiah as compared to other currencies as Greece had been priced-in on currency-related policy. '€œWhat we consider will have an impact on the currency is when the Fed actually increases its interest rate by the end of the year [...] But there is still so much more to take into consideration other than that.'€

'€œWe can do only so much if the factors are from the outside. But we will certainly increase our foreign exchange reserves. Bank Indonesia has prepared everything necessary for this.'€

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