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Analysis: In spite of electoral success, Golkar chairmanship up for grabs
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Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto (front center) poses with the management of the Golkar Party on Jan. 22, 2018, after an extraordinary congress at the party headquarters in Jakarta. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)
M
ost political parties automatically extend the term of their chairman if they have performed well in a general election. Yet, this rule does not seem to apply to Golkar, which, under chairman Airlangga Hartarto, saw its tally of votes increase in last month’s legislative election to come second. Although his term is good until December, the race for the chairmanship is already heating up, including calls for an earlier extraordinary congress to settle the issue.
One name that has been touted in the political corridors is incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Although he is not a party member, in Golkar, almost anything is possible. Jokowi, whose approval rating remains high, is seeking a political vehicle for when he steps down in October. Another prominent name is Bahlil Lahadalia, the investment minister, who is seen more as a proxy for Jokowi if he decides not to contest the race.
Going by the current vote count at the General Elections Commission (KPU), Golkar is predicted to come second with more than 15 percent of the vote, just behind the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the winner of the last three general elections. The KPU has until March 21 to announce the results the but most quick-counts by independent institutions have put Golkar at number two, closing the gap with the PDI-P.
Airlangga, who has chaired Golkar since 2017, could rightly claim credit for this success.
He has used his position as Jokowi’s chief economic minister effectively, including by showing loyalty to the President and tapping into his strong popularity. He brought Golkar to endorse the nomination of Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto in the presidential race, suppressing his own ambition for the coveted post or even for the running mate slot.
He was quick to move in October when Prabowo named 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s 36-year old son, as running mate. He invited Gibran to a Golkar leadership meeting and gave him the yellow Golkar shirt.
By most accounts, the Prabowo-Gibran ticket is predicted to have won the February election with a landslide. But whether Airlangga has invested enough to secure his own future in Golkar or in Prabowo’s future administration remains to be seen.
He has started currying favor with Prabowo. On Feb. 19, as chief economics minister he staged a widely publicized simulation of the free-lunch program in a school. The program is Prabowo’s most popular election promise as a way of improving children’s nutrition and curtailing the national rate of stunting. Airlangga may have moved too fast, since Prabowo’s victory is not confirmed and the school lunch program has not been adopted by Jokowi.
What’s More
If the quick count predictions prove accurate, Airlangga has turned the party’s fortunes around from its historically worst performance in 2019 when it polled 12.31 percent of the national vote, that was also the first time Golkar failed to make it to the top two.
Any notion that his chairmanship is safe because of this success is misleading. As one of Indonesia’s largest parties, the chairmanship is also highly coveted by ambitious politicians because of the power it wields. Since no single figure dominates the party, the chairmanship is up for grabs for anyone with a strong political base and lots of money.
In contrast, other major parties are ruled by powerful figures, for example the PDI-P under former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, Gerindra under Prabowo, Nasdem under media mogul Surya Paloh and the Democratic Party under former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Each of these aging figures have already lined up their children to succeed them to foreclose the chances of outsiders contesting the top job.
But Golkar’s leadership is open and since it is widely coveted, it is also vulnerable to outside intervention, particularly from the incumbent President. Airlangga would not have gotten the job and lasted this long without Jokowi’s support. He was elected at an extraordinary congress to replace Setya Novanto, who was convicted of corruption. He was reelected chair at a regular Golkar congress in 2019 by acclamation for another five years. Both times, Jokowi’s fingerprints were visible.
Golkar today is a different party from the days when it was the political machine to support strongman Soeharto to rule Indonesia with an iron hand from 1966 to 1998. After 1998, the party managed to whitewash its tyrannical past to remain as one of the top parties in the country.
Golkar has never been in opposition, always joining the coalition government after each presidential election, even after it backed the losing candidate, as in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019. For once, in 2024, it seems Golkar has backed the winning candidate. Post-Soeharto, Golkar has been managed mostly by business types instead of former generals.
In the past two weeks, four names from within Golkar have surfaced as possible contenders for the chair. Besides Airlangga and Bahlil, there is Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita, as well as Bambang Soesatyo, chair of the People’s Consultative Assembly.
Jokowi’s name however is always lurking in the background, although he is not a party member. Jokowi has not even renounced his membership of the PDI-P. Pundits speculate that if he is not going for the chair, he may aim for the powerful post of head of the advisory council, with the ever-loyal Bahlil chairing the party.
Timing is important. Airlangga will feel much safer if the congress takes place according to its original schedule of December, when Jokowi will already have stepped down and lost much of his power. Airlangga needs only to lobby Prabowo, who will wield more power when he assumes the presidency in October.
If the congress takes place before October, as demanded by some factions, Jokowi will still wield some influence in the congress. There is no guarantee he will support Airlangga. If Jokowi is building is own political dynasty, then Golkar would be the perfect target for the outgoing president to wrest.
What we’ve heard
Golkar's internal circles are aware Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto is facing a serious challenge in his bid to retain his chief post. One politician who has begun to take actions to take over the party top job is the Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, who is suspected to have received support from President Jokowi.
These sources said the Golkar politicians who are against Airlangga have been trying to move forward the schedule of the Golkar national congress from December to before October.
Nevertheless, Airlangga's position remains strong due to support from regional chapter leaders, thanks to the party's strong showing in the elections. "There are letters from regional chapter leaders, asking Airlangga to continue leading Golkar," said one of the sources.
On the other hand, Bahlil has also begun to gather support, one of which is from the executives in Central Java chapter. Bahlil is said to have gained trust for his role in helping the party win the second most votes in the elections. A Golkar senior official also admitted to being contacted by Bahlil to support his bid for Golkar's chairmanship. "We're together," the source said, echoing Bahlil's words.
In addition to Bahlil, another figure vying for the position of party chairman is Minister of Industry Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita. The relationship between Agus and Airlangga has recently become strained due to personal issues between the them. These sources mention that Agus is also trying to woo support from Jokowi. According to them, Agus received support because he is considered instrumental in supporting Jokowi's eldest son's electoral machinery, Gibran Rakabuming Raka.
Another source within Golkar's internal circles said that Airlangga is aware that his position is threatened. Therefore, the source says, Airlangga is now leaning toward Prabowo Subianto. One indication, the source says, is that Airlangga is actively supporting Prabowo's flagship free lunch program and offering himself to lead the transition team. "The goal is to secure a position after the new government is formed later," the source said.
Disclaimer
This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:
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- Bahlil’s implication in corruption may hinder his political ambition
Business and Economy
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- BTN’s sharia unit to acquire Muamalat, another rescue attempt
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